As you read this article I would like you to consider a few things about me as the source of this information.
- If you look at the top of this website you will see it is called The Survival Podcast. If you are new around here this is a 12 year old two time winner of the “Podcast of the Year Award” with almost a quarter million daily listeners. I teach and have taught preparedness for over a decade now. If I was out for pure self interest, the best thing for me right now would be to hype this crisis for personal gain as most of my contemporaries are doing. Just consider I gain nothing and likely at least short term hurt myself by taking the calm and rational approach to this. I could be selling “fear and gear” like everyone else, instead I have been presenting pragmatic facts again for over a decade.
- I am not a doctor, I am not a virologist, I am not a scientist nor am I an epidemiologist. I also don’t claim any such credentials. I am simply pointing to simple, verifiable and sourced facts. In fact 90% of what I am about to tell you the media is actually saying, they are simply sandwiching it between wall to wall fear mongering.
- What you are about to read is based on sourced facts and logical extrapolations there of. None of it is meant to say there is absolutely nothing to worry about or to not take sensible precautions. As I teach and have taught basic preparedness for over a decade I don’t feel the need to shout at my main audience about stocking up, etc. My audience is stocked, it is exactly why they re not currently contributing to the hording and shortages it causes. Every American should be taught that basic preparedness is a virtue, if that was done, there would be a lot less fear and panic at the present time.
So here we go, strap and get ready to hear what many seem to be in complete denial of.
Right now there seems to be a meme in place that people are claiming that CoVid-2019 is “just like” the flu. This is a false meme, a comparison does not by proxy mean an equivalency. When people claim that some of us are saying “CoVid is no worse than the flu” they are leaving out the rest of the statement. The actual claim is “CoVid is no worse than the flu for most people that get it.” That word most is a very important word to consider here.
The two are not the same and I feel 99% of those making the comparison are aware of that. The point is simply, quit freaking the eff out, take basic precautions and go on with your life because the reality is there is nothing more that you can do. Breathlessly watching four hours of footage of cruise ship coming into dock, won’t help you in the slightest. Nor will hearing for the 100th time from an expert telling you to wash your hands and sneeze into your sleeve. Except for updates on numbers the media could do 15 minutes of content, run it on a loop and most people would not even notice right now, it is that repetitive. Of course this leads to a compulsive need to hype the very small amount of new data they actually get in a week long cycle.
The real point we are making in our comparison to flu is, if flu was reported the way the media (both main stream and alternative) are reporting CoVid people would be committing suicide by now.
There is also a fundamental set of facts going on here that some people desperately seem to wish to remain in denial of. This is done to the extent that I must conclude many actually want to be afraid, they want to believe the worst. It is as if a huge portion of America is watching something akin to a reality horror show. Think Jersey Shore meets Contagion. Many Americans seem to not want anyone to show them the cameras, directors and producers nor the actors getting their hair and make up done. I am not saying it is all fake, I am saying the perspective is skewed.
Here are the facts you have to ignore to keep the hysteria high….
1. Fact One – new viruses always infect the people most susceptible to them first, making the death rate and hospital rate inflated at the onset of any outbreak. This also makes the contagion rate appear higher than it is in reality.
2. Fact Two – These viruses almost always end up mutating to less lethal and less aggressive, not the other way around. This has already happened with CoVid-2019, though the media first reported it the other way around that it became “more aggressive and deadly”. As soon as that was corrected the media went back to it “could mutate” ignoring that it already did. Isn’t that odd?
In fact if you google “covid-19 has mutated” you will be greeted by a stack of articles saying it is now more lethal, this is in direct conflict with the facts. In China 70% of cases are the more aggressive strain and 30% are the less aggressive, simply because the more aggressive one came FIRST. I figured this out from the base data about 5 minutes after the first false claims came out. They left all the hysterical articles up, no one corrected them, the media again went right back to it could mutate ignoring that it already had. Use your own brain here to figure out why.
3. Fact Three – the death and hospitalization rate is hugely skewed due to the massive number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases. In other words a lot more people have it then have tested positive for it so the percentages of dead and seriously ill look higher then they are.
Bluntly you know when someone is dead, because they are well, dead. You also know when someone is in a hospital or on a ventilator at a hospital. You don’t know that they have CoVid if they sit home, eat soup, thought they had the flu and go on with life. The media, even the main stream media, occasionally briefly acknowledges this, then immediately returns to concerned experts, scary graphs and reporting every single case of CoVid-2019 they can find or surmise.
Again if the flu or any of a few dozen other diseases were reported like this people would be jumping out of windows due to stress by now.
4. Fact Four – The place with the highest sample size is South Korea where they developed a five minute test you can get in a drive though like you went to McDonald’s for a burger. (source data here https://lat.ms/2Q9rfJw ) Due to that in just two weeks they tested 150,000 people. The death rate dropped with that from numbers hyped as high as 3-15% to well, .6 percent. That is point 6 percent as in 6/10th of one percent to be totally clear on this. Note that even that number is subject to further mitigation by the three previous facts above. They don’t go away just due to this level of testing. The fact is even with South Korea’s fast action many cases will still go undetected as they are asymptomatic or so mild people just stay home but never get tested.
5. Fact Five – The reporting is being skewed to make it look worse than it is, mostly because the media hypes everything. The second reason though is that CoVid-2019 it is an actual problem and hype creates compliance. Folks they call what the TV does, “programming” for a reason. For instance in the flu season so far for the 2019-2020 fall-winter season, AT LEAST 132 people a day died of the flu, because the number this year is already at least 20,000 source CDC (I didn’t pull it out of my ass, here is the link to the CDC data, http://bit.ly/3cPAKaj ) This does not mean CoVid is the same as flu or not worse for you if you get it. What it means is that CoVid is being reported in an irrational manner compared to flu. Imagine if they came on television and radio 25 times a day and said “again today over 100 Americans died of this years flu strain”. And if this had been going on for months.
6. Fact Six – (Note – I should really call #6 an educated guess not a fact, it is the one I am most likely to be potentially wrong about here) – The claim we keep hearing that it is more contagious than the flu seems to be nonsense at least according to some people. One example here http://bit.ly/2QaWDHD. Why? Well there are more new cases of the flu DAILY than the total cumulative number of CoVid cases since it started months ago. Most experts agree that flu is so contagious that quarantine is largely ineffective. Again this is not a vague claim the National Institute of Health says this here http://bit.ly/2TGhvs6
Also while flu is a little mitigated in areas under enhanced control for CoVid-2019 it is still pretty high. While in those same areas CoVid has been largely held back relatively speaking. Meaning while quarantine is not 100% effective with CoVid it seems more effective than it is for influenza. I may not be a doctor, but I do have a propensity for logic. The facts here are in direct conflict with the claimed theory of infection rate. I am not saying CoVid is not highly infectious just that it appears to be at least slightly less so then the flu, while the exact opposite is being claimed.
*Note – Item six was modified form the original published version due to a valid point made by Nick From Mongolia in the comments below. The modifications were the statement in parenthesis and the link to the NY Post Article. This is noted for full disclosure and journalistic integrity.
7. Fact Seven – Farr’s law is already playing out. Farr’s law was first formulated in 1840 by William Farr, one of the founders of modern epidemiology. It has since been ignored in every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.
See the graph below, it shows the new cases vs. cumulative cases. Source is the CDC you can find it here http://bit.ly/2TFhghc While it appears that cases are now again on the rise when you factor in the fact that testing is now going on, it shows a flattening. Again South Korea tested 150,000 people in two weeks more than the rest of the world tested in a month. We are already heading to the back side of the Farr’s law bell curve which is being driven by the coming of spring and warmer wetter temperatures. Yet another way CoVid is like but not just like the flu.
Again I know new cases appear to rise but due to extensive testing we now know of literally thousands of cases that other wise would go undiagnosed. No one actually denies this fact. Again in moments of honesty even the TV experts are saying this. To see the graphic below you will need to drill down to current cases at the CDC site, again which is here http://bit.ly/2TFhghc. Cumulative is always going to grow and fairly rapidly, it is another thing media focuses on exclusively because it is well, scarier.
This is why insurance companies just agreed to cover 100% of CoVid costs with no deductible, they know we are going into decline already and it won’t cost them much. (This is another fact you can confirm, here you go http://bit.ly/2vcqE2i ) As most American’s know insurance companies use every trick they can to deny a claim, they just wrote a very public blank check on CoVid. Draw your own conclusions from that. Do you really think if 20,000 Americans were going to be in ICUs and on respirators tomorrow Aetna, Cigna, etc would write a blank check for the bill?
In the end, most people (note most, not all) that compare CoVid-2019 to Influenza are saying it is more like flu than any other illness we can compare it to. Like the flu does not mean the same as the flu, you should have learned that in say 3rd grade grammar.
The point is stop freaking out, get the actual facts and take the precautions you are directed to take. Otherwise go on with life, stop hording toilet paper and bottled water. Realize you have an unlimited supply of water from your sink by the way and that a few packs of TP lasts a long time.
That is all, nothing more. The fact that pointing this all out triggers people into a hysterical response shows that the over hype and misreporting is working exactly as it is intended to. CoVid is not nothing but it is far less of a threat then current hysteria would lead you to believe. In fact your odds of dying of any accidental death vs. CoVid in the next four days, are fundamentally equal.
That does not mean to ignore the actual threat, just turn the TV off a few hours a day, the stress it is applying to the mental health of the American people right now likely exceeds the danger of CoVid-2019. It is also the key factor driving the economic consequences and supply shortages. None of which helps anyone, well except the people profiting from it or using it to further an agenda.
* Note – Before attacking this article by attacking my site or myself as the source, please look up what an ad hominem fallacy is. Thank you. If you wish to dispute my claims in this article I invite you to do so. Before doing so please consult the diagram bellow. This is something we should be teaching along with basic preparedness in this country. Hence any comments on this article that fall below the threshold of counterargument will be ignored and not responded to.