There will NOT be ANY peak oil. I have books from 1910 talking about ‘when’ we will run out of coal in the next ‘few decades’. If you look at all of the books through history, there is always someone calling for the sky to fall and we ‘run out’ of something. Its because people think in terms of a ‘static’ model. Of things always being the way they are today. They do not account for innovation, creativity, genius and change.

I’ve been calling peak oil people kooks since the 1990’s and I’ve told lots of investors DO NOT GO LONG ON OIL. Because its a fact, that adjusted for inflation, our energy gets cheaper and cheaper on a decade to decade basis. Sure..there are spikes in prices, but rarely do those last for a decade.

Oil will not ‘run out’ for a variety of very intelligent reasons. 1. All oil wells since before WWI (one!) still have 80% of the oil left in them and we can go back with horizontal drilling and fracking and get more out.

2. We are moving to a more and more natural gas based energy system. Its an evolution of energy that you can’t stop. We start with energies high in carbon and move to energies low in carbon and with more hydrogen in them. Methane CH4 – one carbon, 4 hydrogen, is a great example of this. More and more our transportation will rely on natural gas in the future and with a few more changes in nat gas storage technology we will be able to store more natural gas energy per unit of volume (gallon) than we get out of a gallon of gasoline. This will happen. You can’t stop it. After we get on a natural gas standard, we’ll move to a hydrogen standard. Again, this has nothing to do with any environmental movement, it has to do with the movement of man through the history of energy. Solar in a solar thermal chemical energy format will be many times more efficient than a solar electric (panels) approach. Nuclear will become a larger portion of our energy eventually (this is nuclear fission) and then we’ll move to nuclear fusion and then to anti-matter energy, with the first anti-matter energy being anti-hydrogen and then we can move through the periodic table with anti-elements being even better than anti-hydrogen (anti-matter). Again this is the history of man advancing through energy history. It cant’ be stopped, and it can’t be accelerated or retarded too much either.

The other thing regarding ‘oil’ and its ‘peaking’ which is false, is that since WWII with germany having some 37 synthetic oil plants in germany and poland we have had the ability to synthesis oil and even diesel fuel and other distillates. These synthetic oil and fuels can be made from garage, coal and the easiest is natural gas.

Natural gas is endless. Not only do our landfills make it for us, as does every decomposing organic material in the world, but there are endless amounts of it stored in the ocean in the form of methane hydrates…which is from the decomposing or organic material below certain depths of water of the ocean. The natural gas becomes a ‘solid’ and that can be drilled for. I can write a book on this subject alone.

I can also make natural gas from solar thermal chemical processes. So literally I can take solar heat and any organic material, or anything with carbon in it, and I can make natural gas, or I can make hydrogen and carbon monoxide (syn gas) and from any of these I can make anything else, like oil or diesel fuel. All of this is WWII level chemistry, let alone with we can do with Apollo ear (NASA) chemistry and that does not include what we can do with post year 2010 chemistry.

When you understand energy and chemistry in depth you can see the world of possibilities and what can endlessly be done and all of this is possible when you have faith and love for human life rather than a hatred for it.

So you’ll understand why I say what I say when I say stuff like peak oil is false, and always will be. Everything I’ve mentioned is public knowledge chemistry. If you think what I just said about energy is fascinating you’d be flabbergasted to know about them confidential level chemistry I have done with Roy McAlister regarding what can be done and made with energy from organic sources as well as high temperature solar energy. The possibilities are endless and we are not going to be running out of energy anytime soon.

We will start to use less and less oil for transportation and then we will start to overall use MORE AND MORE OIL. Yes. We will use more oil in 2030 than we do today and only a fraction of it will be used in cars as a fuel? Know where the other portion of the oil will be going to ?? Making carbon fibers for carbon fiber manufacturing of goods. The way we are in a world today that make from concrete and iron, our child and grand children will be living in a world made from carbon. Buildings will be made from carbon, I beams will be from carbon, electrical wires will be made from carbon and even the insulation around those carbon ‘wires’ be made of carbon.

When you really really understand chemistry after spending at least 10,000 hours in the field working with it you will see the endless and endless possibilities that lie ahead of us. Its a world of opportunity….and if you are really really smart, then you’ll know where to invest your money because these fields will be exploding continually in the future as we advance through our history of chemistry and energy.

I hope you found this interesting.
Best,
Steve

Steven –

Yes, like Hawaii, high electricity rates here make alternative energy more attractive, once we got the ball rolling, with things like back in 2007 when a bunch of us were invited to testify at our and got our Public Service Commission to force our USVI power utility, WAPA, to allow full net metering for solar PV and wind. Now with that victory, but having reached the relatively small cap of 15MW total (of a total peak demand of around 125,000 MW for all three main islands) for all three islands for private and business installations there are other alternative additions developing.

The typically resistant to let go of generating electricity, power utility, ours has also entered into Power Purchase Agreements, PPAs to additional Tens of megawatts of solar PV, some of which is on line and has a signed PPA with a Bio-Fuel company to produce some 8MW more as well as working with others for possible wind turbine development.

Also, sort of to WAPA’s credit, they are also trying to lower the cost of electricity by getting away from diesel and #4 fuel oil powered generators by converting the those generators to being powered by imported propane in a $185M project which just completed on St. Croix and is scheduled to completed in a couple of months on St. Thomas (St. John is powered via underwater cables from St. Thomas). However, the promised 30% reduction in electricity bills according to our research will not materialize.

A company I am a 1/3 partner in has been working with the USVI Waste Management Authority to turn 60-80% of the USVI organic solid waste into energy along with helping them close their two landfills that are under an EPA mandate to close by 2019 – with several additional energy producing/storage/cost savings twists we have added (not just harvesting landfill gas – which they are already partially doing). Depending on what additional elements we have in mind and are ultimately accepted the project could add another 6 to 12 MW of base load total, combined for both St. Thomas and St. Croix.

As far as the restaurants go, as elsewhere, most professional chefs prefer to cook with gas (popane is our only choice), it is the other electricity usages that drive up their bills. Even our small, non- AC “hole-in-the wall” (20’X20’) drink and burger food and beverage establishments have electric bills of up to and more than $5K/mo.

I agree with your suggestions about keeping the heat of cooking and that which is generated from condensers for walk-in refrigerators etc. outside. This is why another company I represent, services their kitchen exhaust systems to help remove that kitchen heat.

Regarding natural building cooling efficiencies, we do have one natural cooling system going for us – thermal mass of the Caribbean and Atlantic which keeps our ambient temperature roughly 75 to 85 degrees all year around (as a Chicago native, I feel sorry for everybody up north). So many of our restaurants and homes (even many $M+++ ones) are open-air cooled. Indeed, in centralized locations with plenty of exposed concrete, thermal mass works against them. That said, I have a personal home room-addition project that takes advantage of ground thermal mass. With the structure being built on something like a 30 degree slope we chose to build it down, rather than out. Our island of St. John is almost all volcanic rock once you dig down one foot, so we jack-hammered down and that plus the reinforced shaded concrete block walls in that area keep the room at least three degrees cooler than the upper, equally well ventilated, stories.

As far as LEDs go, I graduated from CFLs to LEDs a few years ago and have found great ones with wonderful color renderings plus are dimmable. One of our larger restaurant clients bit the bullet and changed out all of their lighting to LED and took their AC restaurant’s monthly electric bill down from $22K/mo down to $18K/mo – still a lot but some $4k less.

I like your other energy efficiency ideas and employed some of them when I lived in Tucson over fifteen years ago. Currently I am working on negotiating with representing energy efficiency companies to do more down here. It is really a shame to see good businesses, like grocery stores driven out of business due to $28K/mo electricity bills; our only St. Thomas dairy for the same reason; and other potential businesses not wanting to relocate or start up here for the same reason.

Steven, in Arizona I did the same water cooling with AC units in a couple of my residences.

Yes, over the years I have helped make our residential property much more efficient and sustainable including never having to pay for any water, potable, irrigation, or general use; expanded grey water systems; etc.

And thanks to your ongoing help am virtually energy independent.

Also, this dialog has given me the idea that if I can’t find somebody locally who can help VI businesses become more energy efficient, and with all the other things I am involved with, perhaps with my connections and your expertise we might make it economically feasible for you to provide your expertise.