Out Back with Jack – Epi-2972 — 9 Comments

  1. Jack – you COMPLETELY nailed the research issue. One of my trigger phrases is “I read an article.” what that means is they read a popular magazine where someone who wrote it read a part of something they didn’t understand. As I tell people, in grad school, you didn’t read “An article” you read ALL the known articles in refereed journals that were published ever on a topic. What you usually found was that there were usually theory A, B, and C that all had some merit, but one or two were in the front. Of course, someone could come along with theory D, and that would be the new thing (meaning explained more better) because science is a process. The real rub, that you learned, was that you never saw the “bias.” You could only see successful research. You never knew how many studies failed to replicate, etc. To know that, you also had to attend conferences and discuss things over beers. So theory A might have 30 studies supporting it, but 90 that failed. Theory B might have 15 that supported it over A, but there were only three that failed to support it. But journals usually only support positive evidence for something (Can’t prove the ‘Null’ hypothesis). Well said Jack!

    • As bad as “I read an article” is, know two that are worse?

      “I read somewhere” – Oh okay, so you don’t even know where? Likely these are facebook comments etc.

      “Someone told me” – Oh just fuck off, someone?

  2. I have respect for Raoul Pal’s perspective, but I suspect his BTC & ETH peak price targets for this bull cycle are rather high, at least if assuming the peak in Q2 or Q3 2022. Not impossible, just less probable and nearer the top end of the ‘possible’ range. I myself expect the peaks at maybe half those numbers if we peak spring or summer of next year, at least assuming there’s no massive QE event between then and now. But if the bull market moves more slowly and peaks in 2023, I can see Raoul’s call being closer to the mark.

    It may be worth viewing some of Benjamin Cowen’s work (Into the Cryptoverse) on Youtube. So far I’ve found his lengthening cycles & diminishing returns hypothesis to be a more compelling case (and more predictive of what we’ve actually seen thus far this year), even though it means the prices won’t go as high as I’d prefer. I believe he said he’s targeting bull-cycle ATH’s of $100K-200K for BTC, $10K-13K for ETH, and $8-14 for ADA to happen no earlier than sometime next year.

    I’ve been trying to craft my DCA selling plan to try to cover the range of the more conservative estimates (selling slightly higher percentages as price goes up) but at the same time still have a very healthy percentage available should prices rocket past that and prove Raoul Pal closer to the mark. Coming up with a DCA plan isn’t too hard for BTC, ETH, & ADA, but I’m having a much harder time finding reasonable estimates for others like DOT, LINK, ALGO, ATOM, ARK, etc. For now I’ve just been making it up as I go, mostly by trying to determine what bull-market-peak market cap values would be halfway reasonable for each coin (using altcoin/BTC pair historical prices) and basing DCA sell targets on that. I’m sure it’ll be far from perfect, but odds are I’ll do better than picking a number and try selling it all at once.

  3. I though it was the Roundup weed killer sprayed on wheat & other grains which made them toxic & indigestible ?

    Is the theory in the Podcast 100% correct.
    What about cattle & horses which eat grasses & wild grains, they chew & digest some, but many pass through them un damaged & fertilised.

    What about Nettles, they don’t want to be eaten, the feckers sting the hands & mouth of anyone who tries to eat them ‘naturally’ (without pricessing or cooking them), yet they are supposed to be very healthy to consume ?

    GooseBerrys (Golden Berries) are supposed to be high in vitamins, but their bush is covered in very sharp thorns, (surely the Gooseberry bush is tellihg me to “F**k off”

    • Well you are wrong, sorry. Ya they spray some grains to harvest early, it is an additional poison.

      Sugar is poison in excess to humans and it takes far less to be in excess. Eat all the goose berry you want but it is still sugar. HIGH AMOUNTS OF EASY TO ACQUIRE carbs/sugar for humans do not exist in nature. There is a reason we evolved to not rely on them and relying on them causes misery.

      In the end every counter to this argument uses no actual science and amounts to some form of “special pleading fallacy”.

      Nettles? Again 1 ounce of liver is more nutrient rich than a pound of nettles.

  4. I largely agree with you.

    Jordan Peterson had a theory that humans developed colour vision to identify ripe fruits, then fruits evolved brighter & more diverse colours to attract humans & birds to eat them to spread their seads. So it became a ‘positive complementary arms race.
    Then later the addition of meat increased humans size & brain power.

    But maybe humans lived shorter lives back then, so they were dead before sugar related problems attacked them.
    Check out link below, or google ‘The two Ronnies Blackberry’

    • Okay so berries and fruits were not capable of causing primitive man the problems of today. Why? One more time, large amounts of year round carbohydrates that are easy for humans to acquire DO NOT EXIST IN NATURE.

      Fruit is available in short term cycles and with out modern ag requires a lot of labor to harvest. You have a choice pick up oysters year round at the edge of the water and never be hungry or spend 10 hours a day picking berries. No jobs exist, no banks, no rent, etc. What are you going to do?

      • Yes, ‘Fruit available in short term cycles’ explains better to me now.
        (I had missed that in the origional podcast).

        Maybe sometime Google the Irish Potato Famine 1845…it was an ‘engineered famine’ by the British Landlords to eradicate small tennant farmers who had been earlier corralled by the British to ‘survive’ on one mono crop ‘potatoes’

        The British Landlords eradicated the Irish tennant farmers so as to establish large estates of a few thousand acres per Landlord. Similar in some ways to the Communist collectivization of farm Russian farm land after 1918.

        It was a case of British Communism dressed up as Capitalism.
        Or perhaps the worst aspects of Communism mixed with the worst aspects of Capitalism.

        It might be inspiration for a future podcast.

        Kerp up the good work.