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Get Out, Get Out, Get Out – Hurricane Harvey is Going to be Catastrophic

The Survival Podcast Posted on by

I have said “get out, get out, get out” two other times at TSP.  The first was in reference to the stock market in 2008, the second was in reference to hurricane Ike also in 2008, both times I was sadly right.  So it has been 9 years since I last said, “get out, get out, get out”, please listen to me if you live in major impact areas for this storm.

The media talking heads are in love with their coverage of this storm, gives them something to be over the top about with little need of hype.  They are also falling over themselves to determine if Harvey will make landfall as a Category 2 or Category 3 storm.  You know what that is like?  Debating about whether you want to be shot center mass by a 308 or a 30-06, there may be a few FPS difference but the terminal effects are going to be identical.

This storm will be a few MPH in max wind over or under 110, and it won’t matter what number they assign it, the terminal effects are going to be the same, if it is 108 or 112, the Saffir-Simpson number will change but the effects won’t.  America has suffered from “mine is bigger syndrome” so long that people think this actually matters, it doesn’t.

Here is the deadly combination and why I am saying “get out, get out, get out”.  First this storm is well organized and it is going to be very harsh in making land fall, again a few mph won’t mean shit when it does.  So you are going to get typical major storm surge and damage.

The nightmare though will be flooding and flooding kills more people every year in the US than any other weather related force.  There is a system sitting over north Texas where I live, this system is holding Harvey’s speed of movement (not wind) to a snails crawl.  So when it makes landfall it is going to be like a slow moving buzz saw!  It is going to stay near the coast for a LONG TIME which will give it a lot of fuel that it can draw in moisture and heat from the gulf.

Worse!  It is going to stall!  It will dump over 3 feet of rain in some areas, the flooding is going to look biblical, I say again, if you are where major impacts are going to be “get out, get out, get out”.  Sure a day into this it will likely “weaken” into a tropical storm as it sits over land, it won’t matter, you will still get likely tornadoes, wind shears and strait line wind damage.

Again though you are going to have flooding in ways some won’t even believe after they see it.  I could be wrong, I probably am not, so please one more time “get out, get out, get out”.  The last time a storm really stalled like this and dumped massive rain was Tropical Storm Debby in 2012 in Florida.  The TV barely mentioned it but many that lived though it know it brought massive missery.  The highest rain fall totals were about 25 inches, you can see the rain fall totals here.

Well Harvey already has some rain fall projections over 35 inches!  Do you get it yet.  Everyone is worried about the wind, that is wise but the water is the bigger danger.  I have said my piece, if you are in the impact zone you know what to do.  If you have family saying they want to stick it out, please talk them into taking a brief vacation, lots of nice hotels in Austin, good music, good food.  If nothing happens go home Monday and go back to work.  If you have dogs find a pet friendly hotel, find a relative to shack up with for a few days.

Listeners to this show should have a bug out plan, this storm is exactly why that is important!

Comments

Get Out, Get Out, Get Out – Hurricane Harvey is Going to be Catastrophic — 33 Comments

    • Thank God I live in Wisconsin. We do not have these hurricanes here. I hope for the best for those affected. Don’t move here we have way too many people living here already.

  2. Jack,

    my mother and step father live on a cattle ranch in Beeville, just between Victoria and Corpus. Dead ass center of this thing. Their “normalcy bias” has led to their decision to stay on the ranch. “We have lived through hurricanes before…we can do it again…” blah blah blah. I can’t tell you how selfish and arrogant it is to refuse to evacuate in a situation like this. You have talked about it on your show in the past. Normalcy bias is a killer. It causes you to leave out variables. And this storm is full of new variables.

    I work for a hurricane insurance company here in Texas and we are using meteorological data and ACTUARIAL TABLES based on windspeeds, storm surge, etc.. to look at this thing, not the moronic weather reporter standing on the beach in Port Aransas. It’s our job to know what storms can do (and did) so that we can handle claims. This storm is no joke and is unprecedented. You are spot on about the flooding. We are also concerned about the sustained winds simply because of the duration of exposure that property, livestock and other assets will be subjected to. Structures that can handle 100mph winds that made it through past storms may not make it through this one simply because 100mph winds for a few hours doesn’t equate to 100mph winds that last for 2 days.

    Thanks for the detailed warning above. I will forward to my mother and stubborn step father.

    • Gregg,

      You’re going to have your work cut out for you when this is all over. I hope your family is able to stay safe. Good luck!

    • Gregg,

      You are correct, it is selfish to make family members worry over their refusal to exercise common sense.

      This makes me so sad. I cannot imagine living in such a location not having and activating an evacuation plan for the cattle days ago when the projections began looking serious. Livestock depend upon us to keep them safe.

      I pray they and their cattle are saved from their stubborn pride.

  3. can u list towns major and cities most affected?

    What about bAstrop and houston ?

    Where can i go to find this info ?

    Ty jan

    • The answer is we don’t know right now, the weather channel has tracks and projections you can look at for time lines. Right now the initial impact seems to be San Antonino and east of it at first, and of course places like Aranasas Pass.

  5. Interesting that the both times were related to Hurricane and Market Crash…. Could this be the year of the Market Crash too??
    You predict everything else with such great accuracy.

  6. No hurricanes here in Patagonia…we are freezing our butts off though.
    Everybody in this thing’s path, stay safe.
    Jack is right. Get out, get out, get out,,,
    ;-D

  7. Thanks Jack. This is a totally different type of storm than we’ve seen on the Texas coast. You and Steven Harris have been the first I’ve heard to accurately point out why.

    I live on the North Side of Houston and I just got back from an outing surveying the situation. Right now about 33% of the gas stations I checked were almost or completely out of fuel. That percentage will grow steadily through the day. Interstate 45 North was moving well at 50mph. That will continue to slow throughout the day. As we learned from Hurricane Rita, this sets up an evacuation trap for those who wait until the last minute. I left the day before with no issues but have friends who spent 16 hours on the road to travel 60 miles. Map alternate routes now and bring water, food, some fuel and gas cans with you when you evacuate.

    There is a possibility that this evening the freeway will likely clog up with traffic for miles and there will be little gas available along the evacuation routes. If you’re south of Interstate 10 and you are in a flood prone area, you probably wont be able to get out after tonight without spending a long time in traffic. Don’t expect to find an open gas station. If you are north and planning to go south for some crazy reason later tonight, TXDOT will likely activate contraflow on the evacuation routes so you wont be able to take major freeways into the the affected areas. Lastly, if you are in a designated evacuation area, and you aren’t packing to go right now, do not expect assistance as emergency services will be slammed and have a hard time moving around. A week or more is a possibility in the most flooded areas.

    TSP listeners have been well trained in what to do. Just be prepared to help those less informed because there are going to be a lot of those folks.

    • Funny thing is Steve posted on FB about two weeks ago saying one system could be the next super storm. My response was, no it will turn out to the Atlantic, the next one will end up in Mexico and be weak, the one over Africa right now is the one to worry about. GUESS WHAT ONE HARVEY IS?

  9. Too bad it’s name wasn’t Lee. The left would have had this hurricane removed.

  10. Hopefully your not in the direct path of the Storm…

    Be safe Jack!

    I have friends on high ground not far from College Station, but they are prepped and staying put… good luck all!

    • We are 300 miles north of San Antonino, we won’t even directly get rain from Harvey.

  11. Hello Jack,

    Hope that you are not hit with indirect anything from Harvey either.

    Keep up the great work, and please be extra damn sure that you and yours are safe.

    I know you know what to do, and more than likely when, but “Murphy” is what it is.

    Regards,

  12. Yes, evacuate while you can, if you live in the path of this storm.

    *My flood experience*
    Last August, Baton Rouge, LA received 24 inches of rain and some areas upstream of us got 30 inches. Areas that had never flooded in recorded history were under feet of water. My house got 13 inches of water on the inside. It has taken us a year and many tens of thousands of dollars to get back to normal. We at least left in time to pack our pets, some clothes and possessions into our truck and drive out. Many others lost everything and had to be rescued by boat.

    Harvey will have even higher rainfall totals on top of storm surge. Pack what you can in your vehicles, put what you can in your attic and drive out while you still can.

  13. For some of us older Texas folks ya’ll might remember A stalled Tropical Storm Claudette on July 24th and 25 th 1979 dumped a U.S. Flatland 24 hour rainfall record 43.5 inches in and around Alvin,Texas. With a storm total of almost 46 inches with catastrophic results. Some areas were uninhabitable for months.

  14. Well, this TSPer is on reserve annual training in the hurricane zone. Guess ill be part of the cleanup maybe. The other soldiers were curious how i was getting more information than what the news put out through my ham radio.
    Right now i miss michigan.

  15. Jack, I have a nephew in Corpus Christi. Him and his wife are hunkering down at her parents house which is right near the water. I thought they were going to Fort Worth but his mom just informed me that they were staying at her parents and that they were not in a flood zone. I live in NC but is it too late for them to leave in your opinion? I have no idea if it has gotten bad there yet. He is deaf and so is his wife so I can’t just pick up the phone and call him.

    • Jack, I was panicking when she told me he was still in Corpus Christi and I wrote the above. I just researched it and now realize it is too late for them to leave. But I have a question if you would so kindly answer: They live near the water (not the beach where the sand is but an inlet??) Not sure if that’s right because I’m an idiot. But anyway, they live right at the water and they do have a two story house. I told them to put food and water upstairs and for them all to sleep upstairs in case of flooding. Is this a good suggestion and is it what you would do? They have a small child there also. I am so upset that they didn’t leave and am wondering out of 4 adults, how not even one of them decided it would be wise to leave.

  16. I agree, get the hell out. I went to post Katrina and several others as well as Oklahoma after the bombing and lost another nurse from debris falling. I may or may not be going down to the coast this time to assist, depending on who is going with me, it was all but martial law and national guard nuts last 3 I went thru. As a first responder, I don’t want to pick up some stubborn stay-put ass’s body and their kids and pets, as well as their elder parents. Its not a good thing and it places me in danger. I go to help recovery, not as a mortician assistant. If someone is stupid enough after all the warnings, let them rot in the sun. Moisture will do the rest and the animals will have food. I plan to return to my child in east TX, so however I have to do it, that’s gonna be the plan. And by the way, in East Texas, from the last few hurricanes there were major power outages here as well as severe flooding on edges of those storms. There is apparently again a wide circle around the cone that covers quite a huge area of the state. Food in freezers lost, no water or gas, and as most well know, a lot of our fuel for transport comes from the areas to be hit hard, coastal Texas refineries. Think about it. And sit there or leave, ultimately up to the person, but an idiot will always out himself.

  18. Happy to see several people in our area have relatives from near the coast spending the weekend with them, some left Thursday night, others Friday morning.

  19. Hi Jack. Good call. A co worker boarded up his house on Port A on Thursday morning and the drive just to San Antonio took as long as it normally took to get to Austin. A great sign that the traffic was heavy a day before landfall.
    On my drive to drop off someone at the Austin airport today, north bound traffic on the toll road was heavy, but not bad. I hope that both were signs that people got out early.

    Round Rock was eerily calm and cloudy all day. Typical tropical flow pattern, but calmer. I hope tomorrow doesn’t get too bad, and those that bugged in are high and dry and don’t venture out until the flooding passes.

    Thanks for the third get out. Good call.

  20. Maybe an od question, but would a Torndo like Harvey have the power to uplift or turn over a 40 foot metal shipping container, it’s floor tiled with 4 inch solid concrete blocks.
    I’m thinking that an insulated 40ft shipping container would make a good shed and maybe not a bad place to bug out in ones back garden (assuming it is on high enough ground where flooding is not a problem ?

  21. After Harvey calms down I can for see a lot of people looking towards prepping, survivalism and purchasing or leasing a remote bug out location.
    Here in Western Europe we have had Harvey all day on the Tv and radio, nothing else happening in the world this weekend.
    I don’t understand why there are so many houses build from wood and cladding in Tornada prone areas in the US ?
    99% of houses here are build from either stone, solid shuttered concrete or concrete blocks or bricks. Roof tiles are mostly 1 inch thick concrete rather than thin slates. About every 20 years we have a big storm which uproots trees, but houses generally do not get damaged.
    Also Rural houses, especially farm houses here usually have trees build around them as storm shelter but at a distance such that if they fall then they can’t fall on top of the house.

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