I have said “get out, get out, get out” two other times at TSP. The first was in reference to the stock market in 2008, the second was in reference to hurricane Ike also in 2008, both times I was sadly right. So it has been 9 years since I last said, “get out, get out, get out”, please listen to me if you live in major impact areas for this storm.
The media talking heads are in love with their coverage of this storm, gives them something to be over the top about with little need of hype. They are also falling over themselves to determine if Harvey will make landfall as a Category 2 or Category 3 storm. You know what that is like? Debating about whether you want to be shot center mass by a 308 or a 30-06, there may be a few FPS difference but the terminal effects are going to be identical.
This storm will be a few MPH in max wind over or under 110, and it won’t matter what number they assign it, the terminal effects are going to be the same, if it is 108 or 112, the Saffir-Simpson number will change but the effects won’t. America has suffered from “mine is bigger syndrome” so long that people think this actually matters, it doesn’t.
Here is the deadly combination and why I am saying “get out, get out, get out”. First this storm is well organized and it is going to be very harsh in making land fall, again a few mph won’t mean shit when it does. So you are going to get typical major storm surge and damage.
The nightmare though will be flooding and flooding kills more people every year in the US than any other weather related force. There is a system sitting over north Texas where I live, this system is holding Harvey’s speed of movement (not wind) to a snails crawl. So when it makes landfall it is going to be like a slow moving buzz saw! It is going to stay near the coast for a LONG TIME which will give it a lot of fuel that it can draw in moisture and heat from the gulf.
Worse! It is going to stall! It will dump over 3 feet of rain in some areas, the flooding is going to look biblical, I say again, if you are where major impacts are going to be “get out, get out, get out”. Sure a day into this it will likely “weaken” into a tropical storm as it sits over land, it won’t matter, you will still get likely tornadoes, wind shears and strait line wind damage.
Again though you are going to have flooding in ways some won’t even believe after they see it. I could be wrong, I probably am not, so please one more time “get out, get out, get out”. The last time a storm really stalled like this and dumped massive rain was Tropical Storm Debby in 2012 in Florida. The TV barely mentioned it but many that lived though it know it brought massive missery. The highest rain fall totals were about 25 inches, you can see the rain fall totals here.
Well Harvey already has some rain fall projections over 35 inches! Do you get it yet. Everyone is worried about the wind, that is wise but the water is the bigger danger. I have said my piece, if you are in the impact zone you know what to do. If you have family saying they want to stick it out, please talk them into taking a brief vacation, lots of nice hotels in Austin, good music, good food. If nothing happens go home Monday and go back to work. If you have dogs find a pet friendly hotel, find a relative to shack up with for a few days.
Listeners to this show should have a bug out plan, this storm is exactly why that is important!