Episode-2078- Listener Feedback for 9-5-17 — 12 Comments

  1. Talking about North Korea’s missile programs and the idea of shooting them down-

    We can’t do that right now, and won’t be able to any time soon.

    We have two main missile defense systems deployed, THAAD, and Aegis.

    The Aegis system, which is currently deployed in Japan, can’t hit even an intermediate ballistic missile. It’s flight ceiling is lower than the flight height of a north Korean mid range missile. It has about a 50% success rate in testing. It’s speed and trackers make hitting a ballistic missile after reentry a sketchy proposition at best.
    An Aegis battery in Japan tracked the progress of the North Korean missile that went over Japan, but they didn’t shoot it down because they knew it would miss.

    The THAAD system is what can hit a ballistic missile, BUT it has a 60% failure rate in testing since its deployment. We only have a couple THAAD batteries deployed, more on the way over the course of a couple years.

    The next main missile defense system the US has is the MIM 104 Patriot. We have a lot of those, more than just a handful. They’re use against rockets and aircraft. Combat usage shows them to be effective against aircraft.

    However, they had a 0 to 40 hit miss ratio against Iraqi scud missiles in one confrontation in the 90s. Sensor improvement has been limited and only started this year.

    On top of all this is the political question of. southeast Asian countries allowing the US to to deploy these systems in their area. South Korea was set against allowing the THAAD system to be deployed on local military bases until last week when people in northern Japan were woken to bomb sirens and warning text notifications to take shelter for an incoming missile.

    Summary: We can’t hit shit with current missile defense systems now, production is incredibly slow, and improvements aren’t schedule for years. North Korea went from not being able to reach Japan with a missile to being able to crudely reach the mainland US since 2016. I used to feel the same way you do about the North Korea issue 6 months ago, but they’re developing better technology an order of magnitude faster than we can.
    Not to mention the speed at which they’re developing nuke technology. They just tested a nuke that was around 200 kilotons that can fit on an ICBM.

    • Well, there is GMD which, in theory, can intercept the longer range missiles and is limited operational status as far as we know. That being said, just based off the publicly-available test success/fail information I can’t imagine they would take their chances on using it unless the missile is projected to fall on US territory. It was only this year did they actually test it against an ICBM-range target, and the interceptors are quite expensive and slow to build/install as well. I have other reasons based off my own experience as to why I don’t have enough confidence in it (*cough* BOEING BOONDOGGLE! *cough*), but the test track record alone should be reason enough they shouldn’t stake any reputation on using it versus a NK test launch. Once they’ve sufficiently upgraded the interceptors and positioned more radars of the proper type in the area the odds might be more favorable, but that’s probably years away.

      I admittedly don’t know as much about Aegis, so unless they’ve got the new Block IIA SM-3’s secretly deployed (possibly allowing for ascent-phase and/or higher-altitude interception) then I can’t argue much with your take on it. I do see Jack’s scenario being possible in the event NK tests some MRBM’s, though, seeing as Aegis is at least more of a mature system than GMD and there are more available interceptors. And just think of the defense dollars being spent on more SM-3 interceptors… there certainly would be some people and companies (like Raytheon) making out like bandits.

      That all being said, this is all assuming the leadership is being rational and is not being fed biased information. They very well may decide to give approval to use 1 or more very expensive GMD interceptors if pride, arrogance, misinformation, or domestic politics play a part. The use of 59 or so cruise missiles to strike that Syrian Air Base was wasteful and served little military usefulness, but nonetheless it happened because it was politically convenient to the administration.

  2. Nailed the nurse story on the head Jack. Nothing to add.

    Also, speaking of North Korea and our defense systems, I have a FUNNY-ASS story about military “defense” systems I can hopefully share with you offline. Maybe at the workshop!

  3. I liked your idea for dealing with “bad apples” in the police force…

    We know what the alternative might end up being: Fake 911 calls and ambushes…

    But money is usually a good motivator.

  4. I used to raw feed my dogs, and I would use cheap leg quarters as part of their food. Then I learned about tweaking their “diet” according to the ratios here:

    Long story short, feeding one kind of cut of meat will likely be problematic in time because you’ll probably be feeding too much bone. That being said, I suppose you could pull the thigh bone out of each leg quarter and put it aside to make bone broth for the family. (I never thought about that “back in the day”, but then again, I didn’t make bone broth back then either. :D)

    Interestingly enough, whole quail is about 10% bone, so quail could possibly be the perfect raw food for dogs.

    Here’s a resource I found for percentages of bone in all kinds of cuts of meat.

  5. Nearly spot on ref the nurse.

    Sadly, the SLC PD supervisor was in on it.

    He spent several minutes chastising the nurse about ‘my law’s and how the hospital is a problem for them. I believe the dickhead stated that the watch commander said if she refuses are at her.

    Later on he ( the LT/watch commander) admits on body cam that he knew Logan PD did not have probable cause for a warrant. Even though he cites his 22 years as a cop, he did not know that the ER draws blood on intake. Later stating Logan PD can just get a warrant for that blood.

    Its all on YouTube. I trust you’ve seen it.

    I’d love to hear what the new Expert Council cop has to say about interfering with another officer on an incident like this. I’ve worn a badge. I don’t know of an effective way to stop it during the incident.

    • As for stopping it I’m not sure there’s a good way of that either. Going into a room and locking the door while calling your supervisor to intervene perhaps? But in her case it didn’t appear she really had much opportunity to do that. I think in her situation, being calm and making sure there were plenty of witnesses was the best way she had to handle it.

      I’m constantly struck by the difference between how the police behave and are perceived here in Mongolia vs. back home. The fear or apprehension commonly felt regarding LE in the US is not nearly so marked here, despite the fact that there is a certain amount of small-time corruption in the local police here. There’s lots of reasons for this I’m sure, but I suspect a big part of it is 1) they don’t generally possess the same wide range of powers that LE in the US does, 2) the typical LE officer is probably held more accountable for big screwups and scandals, and 3) the country is not so riddled with various civil fines and infractions (they are present, just the scope of it is not so great). This is my perception of it here, anyway.

    • “I’d love to hear what the new Expert Council cop has to say about interfering with another officer on an incident like this. I’ve worn a badge. I don’t know of an effective way to stop it during the incident.”

      You will hear his take on it tomorrow, not sure if he will bring up that part because I have not listened myself yet.

    • I realized I forgot to mention the flip side… while the LEO’s in the U.S. sometimes have a greater amount of fear, apprehension, and/or distrust in peoples’ perceptions of them, when you have a problem American LEO’s also seem to much more helpful on average (assuming you’re not in their sights for whatever reason right or wrong) than the average police officer in Mongolia. While I hear it’s got a little better in recent years, the Mongolia police still seem to have a very “meh” attitude about many reported crimes (especially theft) to the point that many people don’t bother reporting them. Many LEO’s in the US in my experience at least make some effort, even if it just means showing up (I know, mileage may vary throughout the US). In contrast many times here you have to be important or politically-connected for them to make a real effort.

  6. Nothing of great importance to add other than I chuckled every time I heard Officer Dickface. I would guess reaching into the pockets of the oath breaking pieces of shit would be a great motivator for curbing corrupt behavior.

  7. Thanks, JACK! Everyone in Florida who listens to you must be spreading your warning. How do I know? Because traffic here is Atlanta, GA suxs! So thanks a lot!! 🙂