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Episode-412- The False Recovery is Beginning

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Notice I did not say the recession is ending but that the false recovery is beginning.  I have been talking about this even for about 18 months now before the crash was even fully realized.  Today we examine the factors in the US and around the world that are going to lead to a raging recovery with a bigger crash that ever on the other side.

Join Me Today as We Discuss…

  • A special deal for the Members Support Brigade – Don’t skip house keeping today
  • A special contest from the Berkey Guy – Again don’t skip house keeping today
  • Response by local governments to the recession, write more traffic tickets
  • How government handles a short fall in revenue – send someone else the bill
  • How better fuel economy will lead to a national toll road system
  • The most new jobs in three years were added in March 2010 (note my side comment about the census)
  • The Wall Street Journal calls 162K jobs in March 54K jobs a month for Quarter 1 – Why?
  • US stocks rise for 5 strait weeks – why it isn’t that big of a deal
  • China pisses off salt mining women in Africa
  • China need for “New African Colonialism”
  • The roles of “Carbon Trading” and “Heath Care” in restarting “the casino”
  • What you can do to ensure your future no matter what happens
  • When the recovery begins remember your promise to yourself of “never again”

Additional Resources for Today’s Show

Remember to comment, chime in and tell us your thoughts, this podcast is one man’s opinion, not a lecture or sermon. Also please enter our listener appreciation contest and help spread the word about our show. Also remember you can call in your questions and comments to 866-65-THINK and you might hear yourself on the air.

Comments

Episode-412- The False Recovery is Beginning — 22 Comments

  1. Jack, cops writing tickets to make up for budget shortfalls is something I\’ve been concerned about since the middle of last year. Since I received two speeding tickets last year, I\’ve kept my eyes open and kept my speed down and since around November I\’m seeing cops around my town in places I\’ve never seen them before. Some people tell me they\’ve always been there but I\’ve been taking the same route to work for the last three years and I\’m only now seeing them. Not a coincidence.

    The guy who commented on China\’s colonialism is absolutely right. The West will complain about what China is doing because they (or we) are not reaping the benefits of their efforts. A classic case of \"Do as I say, not as I do.\"

  2. Jack
    this was a terrific show – so good that I am inspired to renew my membership early – this week – thanks – keep it up – people need to hear this to self protect – you are providing a real service to others – God bless you.

  3. Jack,

    Your comments about trading carbon credits sounds like they will create another Enron, and with the same bitter ending for all who buy into such foolishness.

  4. Great show again Jack.

    Here in Massachusetts, the “revenue enhancement force” as many here call it, has been out and very aggressive since roughly the time Mass was being compared to California for its budget problems.

    The end of the show was exactly the kind of advice I was expecting to here, but you have a gift of eloquence that keeps me downloading every day.

    Everyone should remember, the S has already HTF.

    The gov sucks, inflation sucks, costs of daily living sucks as a result… but moving towards self-sufficiency is the most effective tool we have of dealing with it.

    Thanks for the pep talk.

    Justin in Boston

  5. Excellent show today, Jack. In the last couple years I’ve come to realize American hegemony has been declining. I think there’s a lot of truth in your predictions. It’s best to never sit idle and instead prepare for the coming changes to our country’s role on the world stage.

  6. I recently attended a presentation where a person who participated in the global warming summit in Copenhagen was speaking. The thing that shocked me is they want to establish the carbon cap that is based on population or per capita. Think this one through to see how bad this is. China is now producing more CO2 than the US but you divide that number by 1.6 billion and you get a much smaller number than the US (0.3 billion). In fact China drops to number 96 on the list of carbon emitters. Now do this with India and the rest of the world. To me this is a colossal transfer of wealth and industrial power from the developed world to the undeveloped world. Can you say income redistribution? How about socialism? This is scary.

  7. Great show today, Jack. You are right on about the increase in traffic tickets. Here in Cali cops are finding just about any reason to give people tickets. I got one the other day which i’m definitely contesting. so i went to the local court here the other day and the waiting line circled around the building which is unusually high. This is much like police extortion/bribery you typically see in the third world nations.
    People shouldn’t give in to these corrupt tactics and contest the tickets. Even if they don’t win they will at least bog down the courts. making these fools realize that these measure are not as profitable as they originally thought.

  8. Jack that was a one of the best shows ever & I\’ve heard them all. It will be interesting to see how the false recovery plays out in Australia, as we are so resource rich & a big supplier of minerals to China. Hope they don\’t decide to come and get it!

    3 years till totally debt free and counting! Aim for debt free by the time I\’m 40 & my kids are still under 10

    Adam

  9. Terrific show. If we get a temporary reprieve from the collapse that is coming, everyone needs to use the time wisely, and STAY PREPARED!

    I don\\\’t think we need to assume carbon trading as the largest financial scheme (and bubble) in world history will be what causes the crash to end all crashes, but it may as well be.

  10. Jack, I do remember hearing about Niger in the news in the last 10 years – during the run-up to the Iraq invasion, claims were made that Saddam Hussein was trying to get yellow cake uranium from Niger.

  11. Great show, Jack. I have been listening to you for a few months now but, it was the first time listening with my wife. You have a wealth of knowledge and have obviously done your homework.

    We are both shaking our heads and disgusted by how the politicians in this country are controlling the masses with deceit. It makes us sick. My only debt is my mortgage — I’d like to find that place in the country where I can grow my own garden and raise some chickens and rabbits — I plan on working on it.

  12. I don’t know about toll roads but I have heard proposals of a mileage tax. That would mean the federal government would own your odometer.

  13. I had just commented to one of my relatives that the police were practicing “revenue enhancement” techniques after hearing of two incidents.. one person pulled over because window tinting was supposedly too dark (went to court and won..tenting was 5%..) and another friend was pulled over for missing front plate, but ended up getting a ticket for not wearing his prescription glasses (he had lasik surgery and didn’t get his DL changed). I was pulled over a few months back for not having my current tags displayed on the windshield, but fortunately I had them in the car, just hadn’t taken the time to scrape the old one off and put the new one on. Just seems like bogus reasons to pull people over.. are there no crimes taking place in the world that would be better served?

  14. Hi Jack,
    Big fan of the show, member of the brigade. While I liked the show, and can go along with what you say, I wanted to challenge you, just a bit.

    I think you’re dangerously close to what they call a “Compatible with all states of affairs” argument.

    What I mean by that is that when the news for the economy is bad, you say its a sign that the economy is going downhill, and when the news is good, you say its a false recovery.

    Even if I agree with your interpretation, I think about this in terms of trying to explain this to the “non-believers”. I know the counter is going to be; “Well, what news would convince this guy that things will improve?”
    And I’m kinda at a loss for answer. People aren’t going to listen to a “no matter what were doomed” argument. So what would have to happen for you to concede that things really are going to be better?

    Honestly interested, not just trying to ‘shoot you down’;
    -Shannon

  15. @Shannon,

    I call it like I see it, plenty said I was nuts when I called the market crash in June of 2008 and pointed to “good news” and “bad news” both as reasons it was coming. Others though acted and saved a lot of money, so I say what I feel based on current evidence as always.

    As for “non-believers”, sorry but that is their problem. Not sure exactly how long you have been listening or if you remember that I was forecasting the false recovery before the crash was even complete. My show is there for anyone to go back and listen to, I said a false recovery is coming, now one is beginning. I don’t know what else you expect me to say at this point?

    If there is any REAL good news that points to a sustainable recovery I will be very happy to be wrong when it shows up. Until then I call it as I see it, what I see here is a big ass bubble and we all know what that leads to. At least we should know what it leads to by now.

  17. Another kick butt show Jack!

    @ Gary – Hey thanks for that link. I feel better now that Alan Greenspan says everything is going to be all right. Maybe I will max out that 3rd credit card after all!

    @ Adam from Downunder… I have been wondering how this is all going to play out in Oz as well. As much as we are being told that the GFC magically bypassed us, things sure feel to me like we are gearing up with our own real estate bubble.

  18. Jack great show.
    A comment on carbon trading.This type of thing is already happening with SO2 removal in the electric generation industry. And carbon is just a bigger version that can be spread into a wider arena for the profit of (criminal) law makers.

  19. One of your best shows ever. Archive material. In fact, I bet you will be playing this for people a few years from now when much of it comes true.

  20. Cops Writing tickets? Seems to me it about time that they start enforceing the law. If folks don\\\\\\\’t like the speed limits change them or pay the fine for breaking the law. Sure some flex from the cop to deal with errors in estimated speed in necessary but today everyone is driving 10mph or more over and figuring it is OK. If we applied that rational to robbery, only taking 10% or 20% of your money should be OK. LOL

    Rocky

  21. @Cliff, you said,

    “If we applied that rational to robbery, only taking 10% or 20% of your money should be OK.”

    Well, is that exactly what happens to us all the time. Last year about 40% of my income went to various channels of government via taxation when I add it all up (sales, income, luxury, etc).

  22. Hello Jack, I just listened to this show yesterday, I am a little behind. I agree with your outlook, that if nothing can come into the Casino to change things up there is only one outcome. I am a realist just as you are and am fine with that scenario. I myself have one wild card, the Lord Jesus Christ. While we (society) move around and try our best to make our plans come true whether good or bad there is always the One game changer. My evidence, the United Nations summit in Denmark, the largest amount of snow fall on record while the idiots inside talked about global warming. To me your outlook to which there is no good news, only an inevitable outcome is very probable but I hold out hope for all of us, that while some will go down in flames because of the market and greed, those of us looking forward and preparing will survive because like the people that follow this podcast and belong to the forum, we will stick together and we will survive. Thank you Jack for your realism and your wide eyed approach.

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