Episode-1608- The Next Recession or the One that Never Went Away?
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Hold on boys and girls multiple recessions are on the way. Multiple, yep, Canada is in Recession due to the “oil slump”, China is headed into recession as we speak, China’s recession will put Australia into recession and Greece and Spain will likely soon cascade all of Europe into one as well.
I can hear you now, quoting Ron White, “Close, I thought he was talking about me there for a second“.
Well, sorry to break the news to you guys but if you think Canada, Australia, the EU and China can all have recessions and not have a US recession to go with it, it ain’t going to happen.
Want more bad news, officially the recession of 08-09 ended in late 09, or 6 years ago, well, typically we never make it 10 years in the best of times with out at least a minor recession. The questions at this point are not is a recession coming and will it effect us, they are when will it get here and how badly will it effect us.
Sadly, I don’t know, if I did I would make a few million with hedge bets and not care. I would even tell you guys how and when to cash in too. There may be some money to be made but I will leave advice on that to John Pugliano, what I can tell you is personally right now I am moving more and more to a conservative and cash heavy position.
The big question for most preppers is, “Is this the big one”. My gut is no. Keep in mind I said “the big one would be after after a false recovery, a marked drop in unemployment and likely to occur in late 2015 to mid 2016”, as long ago as 2009 when many were claiming that recession was “the big one”. So why do I now disagree with myself, tune in today to find out, and to find out why not the big one, doesn’t really mean, “not so bad”.
Tune in Today to Hear…
- Today’s show is about my instincts not charts and what economists say
- What usually happens in a run up to an election after two terms
- When stocks die, commodities fly and vise verse
- China’s coming recession will suck likely not as bad as predicted
- No good crisis will go to waste, more regulations coming
- Private institutions will ramp up capital controls, no need for the government to do it
- The trap has been set but we are still seen as dairy vs. beef cattle
- Because this will be global no one can afford to not keep playing the game
- Susie Orman will likely say something during this like, “well you will be working till your 75”
- Immigration touted as saving the day by the time it seems to recover
- There has been no recovery, there will be no recovery, this is the long slow economic black hole
- Will they hit the “big red button”, I don’t think so, but who knows
Resources for today’s show…
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You’re talking about Ron Paul being involved with the stansberry stuff? Yeah I saw that too… wasn’t happy about it either.
Yes it makes me ill, I need to know more and haven’t had time to investigate yet. I don’t know may be the old man is losing it, may be he needs money, I don’t know. I do know Stansberry is a lying thief!
I know endofamerica3.com is now playing that Ron Paul interview and 4 years ago that site played a video saying we only had 6 months until total collapse.
Well he is a politician remember that. I like Ron and he helped push me in the right direction, but at the end of the day he is a politician and has flaws like we all do. I would say he’s drifted out of the spot light with his son taking it, plus he’s pushing 80 and probably fed up.
I’m glad I’m not the only one who noticed this. it’s kinda disappointing, but he was a politician.
OK, I KINDA get it, but, do I as a senior women pay off my debt , two months to go for that, or do I defer and buy some silver? My gut says pay the debt OFF? Derailed due to daughters divorce and need to help her…I know you don’t give financial advice, just asking for your gut feeling. Thank you for all you have done for my families security.
PAY OFF THE DEBT THEN SAVE CASH UNTIL YOU HAVE AT LEAST 60 DAYS IN CASH EXPENSES 90 IS BETTEr DO NOT INVEST IN ANYTHING, DO NOT BUY SILVER, SAVE MONEY FIRST AND GET RID OF DEBT.
I am not sure how many times I have to say the above for people to realize it applies to EVERYONE including them.
Hi Sir Jack,
Im not sure if I’m getting you right but why would she pay of loan and save money? Money is just paper and when SHTF, the paper dollar will get devalued and we’ll be back to precious metals as a way for buying/bartering for goods. Then the govt. will be taking everyones’ belongings/properties including your precious metals, guns, etc. just like before… can you please elaborate on your suggestion above? Thanks
@zombie, your name says it all. Such advice is the advice given by idiots and morons. This advice sucked in every modern economic crisis. Your advice was horrible for people in the USSR, Argentina, Cyprus and Greece. These predictions ignore modern reality and do nothing but sell crates of MREs to those who think they are prepared but absolutely are not. You clearly read to much fan fiction and don’t have any grasp at all on what an actual economic crisis looks like.
Thanks for the reply. Yes I may have been reading and watching a lot of those articles from the people you mentioned in your podcast. You are right in saying we never know when. But can you really say that the next one, when it happens is not the real big one?
How about this Sir:
Based on the above, would it be better then to keep both paper money and precious metals physically, not via any safekeeping shit? Also another advice from people on the internet is that when buying precious metals, make sure they are not traceable, like buying online and using credit cards…
It is easier to deceive a person than to convince them they have been deceived. Personally may be you should go back to Alex Jones for a while, he will tell you what you want to hear, when you want the truth, TSPC will be here for you.
hey Jack.. you caps lock got stuck! ;-p
to reiterate the advice..
– paying off debt is a 100% guaranteed ‘win’ (you ARE better off, guaranteed)
– buying silver is a SPECULATION.. as in, a bet, that you might win or lose (you can call it an INVESTMENT if you’ve actually done all of the research necessary to have a strong opinion about where the value is going)
So.. lets rephrase this to:
Hey Jack, should I pay off my debt or go play blackjack?
Besides.. Silver is dropping at the moment.. two month wait? What’s the rush? 😉
Is this what you are talking about.
Thanks for doing this show Jack! Its always good to hear you talk in this sphere-a voice of caution and reason. thank you thank you thank you
Thank you for reiterating for me what I know you have said before. It is what my plan was. Thank you for your frank honest assessment.
oh my! I just hit the link that Jose Garcia provided and I am dismayed…to say the least. I am going to re-evaluate my thinking.
Yes it makes me totally sick. Not what Paul thinks of the future but his chose ally in this. Porter is a scum bag that has a list of “coming doom dates” a mile long that didn’t happen.
The biggest economic crisis in history will happen in 6 months – made 3.5 years ago
Barack Obama will never finish his term as president – made 3 years ago
Then Barack Obama will use the oil boom to break the constitution and run for a third term – made 2 years ago
It is all about selling bullshit. Seeing a man like Ron Paul aligned with a scum bag thief like Porter makes me sick.
Great show Jack… Now I’m wondering, what are the signs you’re looking for, that, if they start to occur, would say to you “ok it’s time to get out of this market all the way, right now”?
Again unless you are in specific stocks, ETFs, etc. in spite of the fact that I seen no imminent crash (short term) I see the BEST CASE from now till EOY (end of year) being a 5% gain for index funds (typical mutual funds). So if you leave your money in the market now you are doing it for at best a potential 5% gain.
NOW you still need to look at your investments, talk to your adviser, etc. There can be other reasons to hold a bit longer, a dividend you will get in a month, a 60 day window where you go to say long term vs. short term holding and it effects tax consequences, etc.
The truth is I see NO compelling reason to be in any index funds now, but there might be some for staying in them for now.
My personal position now is individual recession resistant stocks with good dividends, some ETFs, cash, silver and gold.
Like I said though the issue is sometimes selling a fund creates a tax consequence or costs a dividend or other things. Now frankly if you are in tax deferred account there is no tax concern, so that takes half the issues away. In any event this is a conservative time not a bail out time, talk to your adviser.
As for what I am looking for, I will know it when I see it.
Jack — You hit on one of the most important points I think you could make in the beginning of this show’s topic. That being the difference between what many people who come from a right-leaning perspective think of when they hear the term “capitalism” as compared to what people who come from a left-leaning perspective think of when they hear the term. I’m one of the (likely minority) of your audience who comes from a left-leaning perspective as a starting point, and I have always cringed when I hear people talk glowingly about “capitalism” and “the free market”. But one thing your show has gradually done for me is to make me realize that for people who start out from a right-leaning perspective, those terms really mean “voluntarism”. And as a person who started out from a point much more on the political left, I have no beef with the idea of people entering into voluntary arrangements with other people. Maybe that could also just be the anarchist in me that now colors all of my political (or anti-political) thinking now. But in any case, I think that it’s important for all of us to consider the vocabulary that we use, and how different terms may mean different things to different people, creating divides between us where there really shouldn’t be any.
Regarding Iran vs Saudi Arabia. It’s funny because I still head scratch when people even mention Iran as being “that bad”. Especially if you mention Saudi Arabia in the same sentence. Not a single Iranian person involved in 9-11. But we’ll just keep calling them “axis of evil” or whatever they say nowadays.
I appreciate shows like this that provide more historical context. It’s too easy to get lost in the weeds of smaller market moves and all the doom-and-gloomers saying the sky is falling every month. Jack, I’m sure you already know this, but this is the primary reason I and a lot of others listen to you on these things. Honesty, regardless of what people want to hear, builds trust. Keep up the good work!
Some of the biggest taxes that the middle class is getting clobbered are property taxes and health care. Health care (really sickness care) costs are so screwed up it’s hard to wrap your head around it. It’s bizarre but when hospitals in are area wouldn’t give estimates because it was proprietary information and wouldn’t give discounts on prepaid services if you didn’t have insurance. Property taxes are really extreme in some areas and that just a crazy reflection on the ineffective and unaccountable school system. These examples of a couple of ways our government and corporations are putting the screws to the middle class.
You nailed it.
A most excellent lesson and pretty good rant 😉
I know about (and remember since I am older than you) how “money” works.
I remember when silver was taken out of the coins in 1964. People were saying “save those silver coins, they will be worth something someday”.
As you have said previously, “money” is an agreement.
It’s kind of like sex: figure out what works and then do that.
I’ve been with you since episode 275.
The new currency will be a basket of commodities.
Paper assets are just promises.
What are promises worth?
What they will bring in the marketplace on that day.
Welcome to Bartertown. (mad max movie).
“Gas, grass or ass, nobody rides for free” I think would be a good analogy to the modern economic situation. To survive (and prosper) one must have something to trade.
All I need for my time machine is a DeLorean, a flux capacitor and just a little plutonium, peace in the middle east and finding True Love and life would be good. HA! Meanwhile, we have to make do with what we have, make, can get, can give and of course we MUST help each other. If we don’t help each other, it’s chaos and Armageddon. Hopefully decent people can prevent that.
There are only 2 tribes: the decent and the indecent.
I love these types of shows. Though I’m probably guess that most listeners don’t follow a word of your advice.
After 2008 I searched and searched for a place to put cash. Good luck with that. The only investment I knew was a sure thing was investing in my current business as well as starting another one.
For me the market seems like a rigged game, my risky investments are my businesses, the rest goes 100% into cash/cash equivalents with financially strong companies that have been in business over 100 years.
Go to google finance plug in ASX:USD shift to a 5 year return. That is a dollar ETF.
Great show! We are dumping everything we can into zeroing out every bit of debt. We still pay about $150/mo in interest and that needs to be in our pocket instead of going to a bank…that’s just stupid.
It is an interesting challenge to find the rational balance where the most plentiful commodity is uncertainty.
I do have my doubts about the strength of US gold reserves based on the 2013-2014 efforts by Germany to repatriate their gold from the US…and us not being willing (or able) to send their gold back.