If you’ve ever watched a financial expert on TV spout predictions with the confidence of a Vegas card shark, you might be surprised to learn they’re often about as reliable as flipping a coin. Or better yet, throwing a dart. Yes, an actual dart—at a wall of stock listings. And surprisingly, that dart might just beat them at their own game. If that sounds crazy, stick with me; it’ll all make sense.

The Experiment

The “dartboard experiment,” inspired by Burton Malkiel’s book A Random Walk Down Wall Street, has been repeated numerous times. Here’s the gist: random stock picks—made by throwing darts at a stock list—are pitted against portfolios crafted by seasoned money managers. Time and again, the darts often perform just as well as, or better than, the experts.

Why? Because markets are complex, and in the short term, stock prices are driven by so many variables that even the smartest analysts can’t predict them consistently. And let’s be honest: when the market is soaring, “even a turkey can fly in a tornado.” Everyone looks like a genius in a bull market, but the true test comes when the winds calm down—or worse, reverse.

The Illusion of Expertise

Financial “experts” are great at one thing: selling you on the idea that they know something you don’t. They use fancy charts, insider lingo, and bold predictions to make you believe their advice is indispensable. But here’s the kicker: studies show that most active fund managers fail to beat the market over time, especially after factoring in their fees.

This isn’t just a fluke; it’s the nature of the game. With thousands of funds chasing the same limited number of stocks, it’s a zero-sum game where fees, inefficiencies, and randomness eat away at returns. And it is worse then you think, for instance there are now more Funds and ETFs holding stocks, then there are total stocks to be held.  In many cases, you’d have been better off trusting a dartboard or, even better, picking solid, tangible assets and holding onto them through the ups and downs.

The Real Game: Inflation and Forced Investing

Here’s the dirty little secret they don’t want you to think about: you’re not in the stock market because it’s fun or because you want to be. You’re there because you’re forced to be. Inflation, driven by central banks printing money at will, erodes the value of cash faster than a blowtorch melts a stick of butter. If you sit on cash, you’re losing. So, people feel they have no choice but to gamble in the market, chasing returns to outpace inflation.

This creates what I call the “money game.” There’s more money chasing fewer stocks, and the result is an overinflated system where even subpar assets can see their prices skyrocket. Think of it like musical chairs: as long as the music’s playing, everything’s fine. But when it stops, someone’s left standing—and it’s usually the guy who bought in last.

What You Can Do

The lesson here isn’t to abandon investing. It’s to approach it with a healthy dose of skepticism and self-reliance. The experts’ track records prove they’re not as clairvoyant as they’d like you to believe. So, why not trust yourself?

Start by focusing on assets with real, tangible value—things like precious metals, bitcoin, and real estate. These aren’t magic bullets, but they’re not tied to the whims of a fund manager who’s more concerned about his bonus than your financial future. And once you’ve chosen solid assets, stick with them. The market will go up and down—that’s its nature. But over time, real value tends to hold its ground.

An Example to Chew On

Consider the infamous “Dot-com Bubble” of the late ‘90s. Wall Street analysts couldn’t stop hyping tech stocks, even when many of the companies had no profits, no plans, and sometimes not even a real product. When the bubble burst, countless investors were left holding the bag, while the so-called experts shrugged and moved on to their next predictions.

Or take the 2008 financial crisis. The same “experts” who spent years promoting mortgage-backed securities suddenly claimed they “couldn’t have seen it coming.” Meanwhile, regular folks lost homes, savings, and livelihoods. Trust these people with your financial future? No thanks.

Final Thoughts

If a dart can beat an expert, what does that say about the game we’re playing? It says this: the power is in your hands. Pick assets with real value. Stick to them. Understand that markets will rise and fall, and that’s okay. And most importantly, remember that you don’t need a Ph.D. in finance to succeed. You just need common sense and the courage to trust yourself. After all, even a turkey can fly in a tornado—but you’re not a turkey, and you’re not relying on a tornado.