Episode-2642- The Expert Council Show for 4-16-20 — 1 Comment

  1. It’s strange, but early on in this pandemic I was disappointed & frustrated at how much it was being dismissed, diminished, or ignored. NOW I’m finding myself doing a facepalm at the extreme reversal and society’s over-reaction. Not sure how much of this is reflexive contrariness on my part, and how much of this is the majority of society and media really being this ignorant and/or manic. It seems the height of arrogance or delusion to think most others are nuts and I’m one of the few rational ones, but damned if it doesn’t seem that way.

    Anyway, if I’m being fair, I’ve gotta give the various governments some slack for their initial over-reaction. There were (and still are) a lot of unknowns, and just based off the extreme actions of China’s government I think the scope of the initial lockdowns is understandable. After all, China had probably MORE to lose than the US by locking down it’s economy, and the fact it still did so makes it something you can’t ignore. But as you say we’re getting a better handle on the actual level of risk, and to not review the information and re-pivot to a better strategy is just f***ing stupid.

    I don’t really think our economy is going to recover more than a modest amount anytime soon, as much as I would like it to be otherwise. If it was limited to the US and a few other countries, maybe… but with our strongly-interconnected global economy and all other significant-sized economies around the world being hit the same way, I suspect any recovery will be on the smaller side. The sheer speed of the descent & change we’ve seen I think will prove hard to recover from too I think. If I’m forced to guess, I’d say unemployment will get better by summer but won’t go back under 10% for a long time. Stock markets probably won’t crash to extreme lows given the Fed’s unprecedented actions, but with a few exceptions I think upside will be limited until the monetary velocity picks back up. Whenever that will be.