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Episode-2641- A New Look at “Bug Out Locations” in the Context of Pandemic Threat

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Let’s start out with this, today’s show is not “since there is a pandemic you should run to a bug out location, or go buy one”.  Rather we have discussed bugging in (what everyone is doing) and bugging out (what only those with very well prepped BOLs are doing right now) many times.  As I thought about our old property in Arkansas I began to consider what it would be like if we still lived there right now.

I also started thinking what if we had not sold it when we left?  Would we go up there right now?  My answer is a resounding no.  Everything thing here is better.  We have tons of storage, but the production is the real key.  This property could keep us fed for a year easy as long as we can feed the ducks and the fish, which we can do at least 50% of with no inputs if we need to.

So I started thinking, now that we actually have had a global disaster, a real one vs. a conjured up one in a prepper fiction book, how does that change the concept of a bug out location.  I also thought about this, despite what the TV scares you into the odds you will die of CoVid are dramatically low, really low.  Like even if you get it only about 2% and much lower if you maintain good healthy life habits, watch your weight (obesity is the largest comorbidity other than age).

More if you do have a underlying condition it is pretty easy to bug in almost anywhere and self isolate right now.  You can get food delivered and based on how CoVid spreads, reduce risk of infection to very very low possibility.  But as we as preppers must do, what happens when we say what if?  As in what if this pandemic had a death rate of say 15%, and a real rate like that?

Anyone being remotely intellectually honest right now knows CoVid has a mortality rate well under 1%, because we have no idea how many cases there really are but we know it is minimum 5X the official number with the majority of cases being asymptomatic.

So right now, I sit just north of Fort Worth, there have been just a hair over 900 cases in my county, which means more like 4,500-10,000 depending on the X factor.  This has all resulted in a whopping 29 deaths, in a county with a population of 2 million people.  So given my set up here, why the hell would I “bug out”.  I have an easily defended property, I can help my son and his family, I have neighbors who look out for one another and my odds of dying by slipping in the shower and breaking my neck are literally higher then dying of CoVid, frankly likely higher than getting it right now.

If a real 15% of people were dying though, if the spread was far worse, if Tarrant County looked like NYC and we had people dropping like flies here, would I head for the hills?  Yea, I might.  If that were the case, what would I have needed to set up in those hills to make bugging out, make sense.

Join Me Today to Discuss…

  • Let’s start with some humor and take a lesson from it – Post I Read on the Air
  • The real lesson on spread with CoVid is all about population density
  • Most people bugged in, for most people it was the right decision, if I lived in NYC and had a choice though, I would have left
  • What makes a good Bug Out Location
    • Low population density
    • Significant natural resources
    • Built in security with enhancements
    • Good neighbors
    • Comfortable conditions
    • 6 months of stored food, water and medicine
    • Paid for or easy to cover payments
    • Rapid up turn of food production
  • The other side
    • How much can you really take with you
    • What about pets and live stock
    • Going before you need to is the only real way to succeed
    • What about the security of your primary location
    • What about your income, your job, etc.
  • The real lessons here
    • The best time to bug out would be if times are decent or really bad
    • There will never be a perfect answer or perfect solution
    • BOLs are great, but not practical for everyone
    • The current situation was best addressed with practical mental, physical, resource and financial preparedness
    • There will be a “next one” odds are it will have the same “best answer” but there is no such guarantee of that

 

Resources for today’s show…

 

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Comments

Episode-2641- A New Look at “Bug Out Locations” in the Context of Pandemic Threat — 7 Comments

  1. One thing that we realized is that a bugout location might not even work.  We live in Dare Count, NC.  Out on the Outer Banks (Hatteras Island to be exact).  What the Dare County government has done is lock the area down to not allow anybody but permanent residents on the island.  So, if you are a non-resident property owner, you are SOL.  You have to go through a Sheriff checkpoint and convince them that you belong there.  There are class action lawsuits against the county for non-resident property owners to gain access.  But good luck with that.  The courthouse isnt taking cases until June.

    This is something to think about.  If you own a property where a community and government might not want you to be there.  Constitutional or not, they arent letting people on.  It is great for us that live here.  We have the beach to ourselves.  But for a bugout location not so good.  and it isnt just island communities that are doing this.

  2. Point Three under “The Other Side” above…

    “Going before you need to is the only real way to succeed”.

    While I am sure they are not letting people in I bet anyone who was in before they started is being ignored.

    • You are correct.  The sheriff is not rounding up non residents.

      I have seen things get to almost a scuffle when someone is driving around with out of state tags and oldtimer locals getting close to being physical with the non-residents.  The Island Vibe is no longer what it used to be.

  4. Jack, we have a country house and a city house. We are in the city house primarily.

    I realized that if I kept garage quail and rabbits here, i could throw the cages in the truck and head to the other property if we decide to bug out. There is plenty of space there to grow alfalfa and sorghum for grain. and keep some bags of feed.

    basically, keep your urban livestock mobile.

  5. Your discussions of the spread related to population density, I believe, is ever so slightly miss aimed.

    I think the real issue is mass transit. Obviously mass transit and population density are very related, but by putting the focus on mass transit you can also include some of the data about racial inequities of the outbreaks. My guess is that NYC was hit so hard as mass transit is basically a mandate across 99% of population but in other places it is only for those below a certain income level.

    As for your proposal that the denominator is way off, I’d like to see the numbers for isolated groups where most people were tested.  Of this group is obviously cruise ships, but also aircraft carriers like the USS Theodore Roosevelt as it was filled with what I assume are reasonably healthy young men and women.  I would think an accurate view of the cases there would be an optimistic (due to health, though not sure about smoking) view of how this would look nation wide.

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