I pull a six figure top line in a side business I started with my wife crossing break even in under thirty months in the worst economy I’ve ever experienced. Within my near family there are three multi-million dollar top line businesses. I work for a multi-billion dollar international that has been profitable for the vast majority if its >100 year history for a day gig where error in numbers and backup is . . . let’s say frowned upon. I’m not rich by any means, but doing fine and growing. My point is that I’m trained and experienced reasonably well to tell the difference between opportunity and wishful thinking as much as the latter can be objectively identified. We’re not talking about a brand new area of tech or even businesses that haven’t be tried where there are no data points. There should be plenty to reference.

I’m just trying to sus out what the reality is here. As far as I’m concerned the numbers are few, scattered and vauge. In the podcast you and Paul were not even clear if the *maybe* $500k was a gross revenue or tax bill and if tax bill if it was all in, or just income, etc.

Some may be excited by the romance of the idea. That’s fine and if you’re young and on your own in particular, you can take some hard knocks and afford swinging for the fences. But the rest should remember they can’t put romance in their child’s stomach when he’s crying from hunger. At least in this case you’ll have your own food. 🙂

In the case of Holzer, maybe, but how many premium brand advantages does he have that the vast majority, and quite possibly all listening to him can essentially forget about? Can you charge $250 a head to tour your place? How about Paul? Salatin can’t. He’s cancelled his personal tours because people were flaking and breaking his balls.

For Darby: $100k on much less. How much less? What are his costs? How many years? What market? What’s the niche? What are the barriers to entry from competitors? On and on and on. If people can’t even think to ask these (VERY SIMPLE) questions when considering a business, their fate will be a matter of luck because they aren’t thinking. You’ve mentioned Rich Dad Poor Dad a number of times as a good educational resource. I agree! He HAMMERS on competent reading of income statements and balance sheets and completing due diligence check lists.

There’s money to be made no doubt. I personally expect that with competent effort there could be some return to a (modernized) small family ranch/farm that makes a decent sustainable living. But it’s tiring and sad to see how many people end up broken spirits because they entered businesses all starry eyed not having done their basic homework.

<< Every single objection relating to the failure many for each agricultural success is easily countered by your own statement, which ironically serves only that purpose in your response. Honestly what other point could you have been making? For each person like you or me in the small business space who succeeds likely 100 will fail, for each person that really blows it up like say GaryV, it will take 100 like you and I. Does that mean that we should not use Gary as an example of what can be done?

No. It means you should study hard what they're doing in some detail and evaluate if it fits you at all, AND if you're entering a business with somewhat more knowable parameters like ag, do your due diligence. The people who fail often fail precisely because they don't do their home work, not that they couldn't have made money, but that they made mistakes that could have been avoided through some basic study and cold calculation. That's about it. I can't imagine talking against this elemental point.

As for Rich Dad Poor Dad, it's not possible to be more irrelevant than to point out the fictional nature of a literary device. I didn't refer to the importance of his tear jerker stories, I referred to income statements, balance sheets and due diligence check lists. These are tools professionals use. Only amateurs and failures ignore them. If you're a baller, you have "people" who do this for you and bring their analysis. I'm guessing most permaculture ag start ups will be boot strapping and pretty DIY on most everything.

It sort of reminds me of something Beethoven said about being a great composer, "one must have the heart of a gypsy, and the mind of a soldier."

I think it's the same for being an entrepreneur. In start up businesses plenty get the heart of a gypsy part right, but are oblivious to the mind of a soldier part with predictable consequences.

But you know what? Never mind this is kind of silly and I might even be talking against my own interests. I know how to make my paper reasonably well. Moreover I love people who go head long into business without a clue. Creates a lot of opportunity for others with cooler heads. Peace. 🙂

<< @Vettezuki Yea I know what you mean I mean I went out and found someone pulling six figures with podcasting about self sufficiency to model TSP on right? I then made spreadsheets, analyzed demographic data, etc, right?

What exactly were the capital requirements of starting a self-employed social media business? As far business goes, I'll call absolutely nothing but your time. It's not comparable. AT ALL.

<< There also were no podcasts on self sufficiency at all. So if I told you I could turn a 35 dollar recorder and a headset into a full time income in 2 years back in June of 2008, what would you have told me?

I would have asked what your experience and knowledge in the field was to try to sus out of he had a product to bring to market (your knowledge and ability). Given your background, I would have said GO FOR IT. Why? What's the calculation for loss if your podcast didn't go anywhere? Some time. That's about it. You kept your day gig when you started to keep bringing in the scratch and trasnitioned as it was DEFENSIBLY RATIONAL.
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I'd say the same to anybody thinking of doing a self-employed social media venture. The costs are effectively nothing, so try some things. Watch Five Minutes with Jack and learn about that business domain.

<< In any event I talked to Darby his figure per acre of revenue is about 5K per acre, so well, that goes right back to 500K on 100 acres, given that he in his own words, “has no idea how Sepp does what he does” and is actually modeling his work on Salatin’s the numbers on a real world American farm seem to jive quite well.

There's a hell of a difference between $5k/acre, which I can imagine for poultry (based on market unit cost for organic birds and number of birds per acre – see, calculation, and he ain't running 100 acres of birds) and $16.5k/acre (estimate based on comment he was referring to tax bill of $500k NOT top line) for mostly fruits, vegetables, nuts, saplings, some fish and crawfish. But Holzer is also pulling in a premium for seminars, tours, etc., which is not something most people can expect until maybe they build up a real brand for education. So if we backed out these extras to show only what he is getting for produce, we probably end up with a very different number. Now I did a little more research and the only thing I could find is that his produce is selling for 18-20x commercial equivalents. That's what we call an astronomical brand premium. In the United States, my impression (note qualification because I don't have hard support) is that organics range up to maybe 300% more than mass market equivalent meat and produce. IOQ, now 1,800-2,000%. See what I'm doing? I'm not being a "downer", I'm just trying to get a rational picture of what's reasonably expected.

<< Now look yes if you are about to plunk down 250K on land, invest in 50K worth of eartworks, 100K into plants and seeds, you better damn well have a plan, know what you are growing, where you will sell it, how much it will command, etc.

You do understand what I'm saying! Think of it this way Jack. Go ahead and write a buisness plan/proposal to take to an investor/banker . . leave out the part where you defend expected revenues. Enjoy the laughter.

<< However to argue about what isn’t possible while some people are already doing it, well, that doesn’t show a “cooler head”, what it shows is limited thinking.

Oi vey. One more time, from the top, with feeling. I didn't say it wasn't possible. My very first statement was I'm calling a *tentative* and *qualified* BS on the extremely high number implied by the statements in the Podcast. This is what people in business do all the time to sort through the noise. The next rational step for an entreprenur is to look at themselves and see what they can do within their SPECIFIC SITUATION to emulate the principles and maximize their personal reality. "Hey that guy made a lot of money, therefore so can I" might be true at a primitive level, but is missing a whole of important bits and pieces between who he is and what is situation is, and where you probably are.

This probably bears repeating/emphasis. What I'm talking about is important/critical for any capital intensive business, of which ag certainly is one. It's not really even an issue for social media related businesses, especially if it's just you doing your thing. I suggest one is begging for trouble if they approach the former as though it were the latter.

The only thing I’m limiting is the “dumb”, an ever present and expanding commodity in the world, not my thinking. My thinking brings home the bacon. More and more of it all the time. I’m not terribly conservative or afraid to take risks by any means. What I do do (as any professional entrepreneur does) is learn everything they can about what they think they would like to try. This does NOT mean do nothing until you’re 100% sure, that’ll never happen. It means eliminate as many unknowns as possibles and work from there. This isn’t limiting, this is discovering current reality, IOW, knowing what you’re doing. Estimations of probability of changes in that reality need to be logically defensible, or you are, by definition, just dreaming. Perhaps there’s nothing inherently wrong with that per se, just realize people wake up from dreams to be confronted with reality.

I think you actually know what I’m getting at, but are being stubborn for some fairly inexplicable reason. If you want to indulge the fantasy that complex capital intensive business with land, employees, products to sell into a market, government regulations, insurances, on and on, presents the same concerns as a social media venture with NONE of those things, be my guest. In reality it fails on its face. In reality people lose their ass on capital intensive businesses all the time because of errors in planning, something you even acknowledged in principle. What would you have lost if TSP didn’t work out? What was the real risk? This matters when taking risks. If the potential loss is minimal to nothing, who the hell cares, try it. Want to start a ranch/farm , maybe it’s just me and my effective real world training with results, but I’d pay a little more attention to details.

Actually, I think I understand why we’re butting heads on this. I don’t believe you’ve ever started a business that required heavy capital outlay, but have worked in a world where the drain on your cash flow, and liabilities on your balance sheet were, well, essentially zero by comparison. My training and background is R&D and manufacturing, big costs, long development cycles; RADICALLY more complex as far as coordinating scarce resources is concerned. Relatively small mistakes can be exceptionally expensive, to fatal.

<< In short, what is the path to farmers not being broke producing to a need?

Small clarification. By need here I mean the food production aspect of the farm/ranch, as opposed to the potential ancillary activities. As for the "want" componenent of this "need" good, that's where the upsale and command premium for a special good (exotic, out of season, exceptional quality, eco-conscience, etc.) is. Here we probably pretty much agree.