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Shawn Mills on Energy Tax Credits – Epi-3477 — 9 Comments

  1. Shawn doesn’t answer Jack’s claim that there will not be enough electrical capacity for electric vehicles.
    Jack said that e vehicle owners will come home at 5pm and plug in their vehicles.
    This is true, but chargers allow you to set charging time, so the car will not start charging until low e prices start (10PM or so).
    At night, there is plenty of low cost electricity.
    In addition, e cars will act as batteries during the day. This will reduce the need for additional power (peaker) plants and actually help the grid.

    Shawn said that new e cars are too expensive (status symbols), and instead you should consider a 3yr old Tesla model S. This car is not available for less than the 25k limit for 4k tax credit.
    Also, new Tesla model Y (after 7500 credit) is 35000 (pre-tax). This is comparable to new high end Toyota or Honda. In addition, state tax credits available for tesla, and cost of ownership much less for tesla.

    • You just keep believing that there are enough jelly bean fields to charge a US vehicle fleet that is even 10-15% of the total, let along the 50% goal by 2035.

      Can the gird do it, day to day, in optimum conditions (fall and spring), yes. Can it handle it with the LEAST amount of usage stress on it, NO.

      Why? Math.

      The math says the power isn’t there. An EV uses on average about as much as adding 1-2 more HVAC systems for the average person, and by the way that also costs money.

      We don’t have the power generation capacity, it isn’t there and we have no real meaningful plans to change that.

      • Your comments would be correct if most vehicles were charged during the day.
        However, as I explained, EVs are mostly charged at night.
        You keep saying that nobody has shown how all these EVs will be charged. I explained this in a previous post (year ago?) and above.
        Instead of insults, try dealing with the content of my argument.

        • I don’t care if it is at night, there is NOT ENOUGH GENERATION OF POWER TO DO THIS.

          Until you can PROVE otherwise with MATH and factual generation stats, you are not worth responding to again. You believe in a fantasy that can’t work.

          We are not making enough power to account for current growth without EVs. The power is simply not there. You have not explained anything only issued opinions and regurgitated what so called “experts” have said.

          When I was a teen we had a friend, he did a lot of stupid things but was overall smart. He would come up with some scheme to involve us in, and he’d always say when concerns came up, “don’t worry about it”. Instantly the rest of us would look at one another and with out a word we all knew, we were NOT going along.

          That is you and people like you here. I also didn’t “insult you” what are you like a GenZ or just acting like one. Is jelly bean field an insult to you, do you make them or something?

          If we can’t handle very cold days and very hot days, we can’t handle 20% let alone 90% of the US vehicle fleet being EVs, again BECAUSE MATH.

          Now if we start building Next Gen Nuclear and massive amounts of LNG plants (which we need to anyway) we can talk, until then with out a spread sheet with verifiable sourced power generation data, your pulling this out of your ass.

          If you say that none of that is “substance” that is because you have not provided any data, evidence or substance, just an opinion.

  2. Ok, if we are agreeing that people will charge at night, let’s look at the amount of energy available at night.
    This link shows that nigh use of e is about half of total e available on the grid (across the US).
    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915

    I know this is a US average, but in early adopting states and in cities, the difference in day (run business and home AC) is at least as large as national average.

    Let’s assume 50% of people own EVs and drive 50miles per day.
    Currently, that uses about 15kwh.
    If you charge from 10pm to 6am, that is 8 hours, using about 2kw continuous. I understand charge curves of EVs, but if overnight charging becomes a burden, utilities can use incentives to have people charge at constant 2kw.

    I was going to go through the math until I realized that 2kw continuous draw added to nighttime use is so much smaller than daytime use, that the argument seems settled. There is enough current generation to charge e cars at night at 100% adoption.

    However, solar prices are coming down so quickly, that current utility generation will be easily expanded if more e needed.

    The transformers and transmission lines needed for this increased generation are not in place and this is concerning.

    Ps calling me stupid is unwise as I don’t seem to lose too many of these disagreements we have.
    …especially about e cars, as I have all the Tesla solar generation and storage tech, and am a large shareholder in the company.

    • So you are financially and emotionally invested in being right here?

      As to your claims, given how often AT NIGHT we are asked to CONSERVE ELECTRICITY I don’t believe every home in American can plug in the equivalent of a 1.5 – 3 ADDITIONAL HVAC systems and the existing taped together grid can handle it.

      Yea I know they are gOiNg tO uSe mUh teSLa aS mUh bAttERY fOR dA gRid. Oh okay that is going to be great at 0630 when I don’t have the range to get to work.

      Have you not paid attention, the market has said NO to this bullshit because it does not yet work. EVs are in production decline, the reason you can buy used ones cheap is people don’t want them any more. EV chargign companies are laying off employees like flies dying in a window.

      I also didn’t call you stupid, the fact that you infer that I did though says something about your reading comprehension.

      Last there is no way there is more power available at night (total) given all the solar doesn’t work and they have not invested dog shit in grid storage capacity. It think what you are missing that Shawn said is….

      1. All the grid providers and power gen companies KNOW this is a problem
      2. They all expect government to eventually fix it
      3. Due to #2 they are not doing ANYTHING to fix it

      I think I will trust the people that generate the power and maintain the grid with their opinion over yours, and trust Shawn’s over yours. Owning solar and stock and a car are not credentials equal to professional electrical engineers.

      As to this comment lol

      “Ps calling me stupid is unwise as I don’t seem to lose too many of these disagreements we have.”

      Wow I didn’t know you were a chess playing pigeon. I mean you accused me of insulting you so many times, I figured no reason not to in the end actually do so. That was the first one BTW and you fuckin earned it.

  3. Wow, you are not capable of replying to my MATH, that 2kw continuous use overnight is no problem; but instead keep insisting e cars will use 2x HVAC systems per house.

    Well, if you are just going to be emotional and insulting, forget it.

    You have a very high IQ, but your defensiveness keeps you ignorant on certain topics.

    You are, however, correct that you didn’t call me stupid, you said I was like your friend who did stupid things but was overall smart. I should have read that part more carefully.

    If people are being asked to conserve electricity at night (which seems unlikely since rates are lowest at night), it is probably in very limited areas–though admittedly i have never heard this.

    If you remember my first post, electric vehicles are the energy storage the grid needs.

    Are you proud of how you deal with information you disagree with?

    • Your math does not stack up to reality you are taking a number provided by people pushing your narrative and NOT making sure it is a valid number. You are working with a best case number, where as anyone with half a brain can go, “X times a year (with X being a number like 30-60 days) the electric company tells me the grid is going to fall over if we don’t “conserve power” and realize you are spouting total bullshit.

      Sorry not sorry. I have yet to find a single engineer that is actively working on the grid that agrees with you. NOT ONE, as in ZERO.

      Again that cred is a lot more than I own a Tesla and stock in the company.

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