Episode-48- Why Oil Isn’t “Down” and Why it Will Keep Going Up

Today we discuss the so called “drop in oil prices to 108 dollars a barrel”, why it isn’t a real drop and why prices will continue to rise.  Tune in today and hear

  • The first five winners of our listener appreciation contest
  • My warning for South Florida and Hurricane Ike
  • The effects on oil no one is talking about
  • Why the drop isn’t a drop and Wall Street knows it
  • The reality of the “movement” of oil prices between 2005 and 2008
  • How small adjustments by U.S. consumers have major impacts on oil prices
  • What “oil speculation” really is an its’ minimal impact
  • The China effect no one is talking about and why they are not buying much oil for now
  • The reality of capacity and demand
  • The effect of “profit movement” between exploration, refinement and retail
  • The decline of the Cantarell oil field and others
  • The effect of the Cantarell decline on Mexico and how it will impact us
  • The myth that we “buy all our imported oil from the Arabs”
  • Why you shouldn’t start celebrating the new “low gas prices”
  • The hidden effects and manipulation of “price point psychology”
  • Why our available imported oil has dropped by 1.2 million barrels a day and is getting worse

Resources for Today’s Show

Remember to comment, chime in and tell us your thoughts, this podcast is one man’s opinion, not a lecture or sermon. Also please enter our listener appreciation contest and help spread the word about our show.

8 Responses to Episode-48- Why Oil Isn’t “Down” and Why it Will Keep Going Up

  1. Fascinating show. I think you may have miscalculated the per-person payout of the daily interest on the National Debt, though.

    You said that each person would get 2 million dollers if we distributed the 49 million dollars of the daily interest of the National Debt.

    49 million dollars a day/300 million people=.16 or 16 cents per person, per day.

    Even the yearly interest wouldn’t become that much money=
    (49 million dollars a day*365 days a year)/300 million people= $59.61 per person, per day.

    I am in complete agreement about your take on the inflating national debt, but I think its important to get the numbers right. Was there something I was missing?

    Thanks

    P.S. After listening to your last show, I am planning on taking a safety refresher at my local recreational center and picking up either the

  2. Modern Survival

    Will, sounds like you ended up listening to the old show (more then a month old) on the debt. I attached it to this show by accident but corrected it soon after. Perhaps your downloaded it before I fixed it.

    Anyway on the numbers I do remember that show and I did misspeak. I works out to about 596 dollars a year per person at 300 million Americans. Of course that is only on the 9 Trillion dollars of debt on the books for the General Funds.

    The actual total debt is about 103 Trillion total. That is about 6 grand a year per person. So even though I was getting pissed and blew that calculation in my head, guess what on a 30 year career invested at 8%, if every American had that interest we would all retire after thirty years of working with 2 Million dollars.

    Interesting isn’t it?

    Anyway try downloading the current show and thanks for catching my error. In the future I am thinking about hiring a research intern to do fact checking and put together outlines, etc. to prevent stuff like this.

  3. The Chinese economy could go off the rails. Some people think there is plenty of abiotic oil.

  4. Thanks for your contribution, Jack. Great Show!

    I think the psychology of price inflation is amazing. This has happened with other consumer goods. Does anyone remeber the toilet paper “shortage” of the 1970’s? Within two weeks, the price of toilet paper spiked and store shelves cleared after Johnny Carson made a joke about a mass toilet paper shortage. When the prices dropped back, they were still much higher than before the “shortage” and never went back down.

  5. Thanks, Jack.

  6. Go figure that I’m far enough behind on shows that I not only miss the announcement that I won but miss the window in which to respond… =-/

    Great show today. Really opened my eyes to several things about how the system of oil really works. My parents live in Saudi Arabia, so I’m exposed to alot more than most people. Still learned quite a bit today. =-]

  7. Oil is now $40 a barrel. It just seem to be going down!

  8. Modern Survival

    @Auto Orange,

    You are correct and there are two reasons this is happening. One is a massive down turn to the worlds economy reducing demand.

    The second is that the oil producing nations are flooding the market right now, cutting their own profits to deincentivize the renewed green/alternative/drill domestic movement in the US.

    Of course as soon as we stop being serious about it they will rain in production and drive prices back up. It has happened before, it will happen again.

    Overall I called this one wrong short term but long term the same old formula will keep on keeping on.