Episode-329- My Predictions from Oct 2008

On Oct. 30th, 2008 I did a show called 9 Predictions for 2008-2011, today we take a look at those predictions and where I got it right, were I got it wrong and even honestly where it looks like I was right but wasn’t totally right.

Tune in today as we discuss

  • The results of the 08 elections
  • Stimulus Two
  • The proposed assault weapons ban
  • The fairness doctrine
  • Depressions and False Recoveries
  • Violent Crime
  • The Afghan War
  • The Iraq War
  • The Unemployment Rate

Resources for today’s show…

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12 Responses to Episode-329- My Predictions from Oct 2008

  1. @Modern Survival

    IRT (Episode-327) – “I am open minded, ask him to come on TSP in February of 2010 we can then discuss this latest prediction and at that point past deadline. I will be MORE THAN FAIR but I will want answers and the nebulous trial balloon won’t be sufficient by itself.”

    This would make a GREAT show.

    I still like Bob Chapman :)

  2. Your right Jack about war if you stop shooting when they do the only thing your doing is letting them reload.The only way to stop a threat is to eliminate it.

  3. Love your show. Just came across this documentary and it is about what your preach. http://www.urbandanger.com. Thought this would interest you and your audiance, I learned of this via the tiny house design blog I subscribe to.

    Keep up the great podcast.

  4. Jack,

    The question on why your prediction of violent crimes didn’t go up. Here’s a possible answer. Since the government pacifies the people with food stamps and unemployment this could cause a delay in people’s “need” for violence.

    Listen to the short book “The Politics of Obedience” or read it at:
    http://mises.org/media.aspx?action=category&ID=116
    or
    http://mises.org/rothbard/boetie.pdf

  5. @Jon

    Funny, I had finally gotten to that part in the podcast and was about to post a similar comment! :)

    I think the reason the violent crime hasn’t gone up in 2009 is because people simply aren’t that desperate yet. They’re willing to commit petty crimes to get what they need, but they haven’t crossed the threshold into violence yet. They still have welfare, unemployment insurance, food stamps, and room on the VISA or Mastercard to live on.

    Cut off the government handouts and call in those debts though, and the law of the jungle will return in force.

    I think I’ll go back and re-listen to Episode 293, the Economic Forecast for 2010, and make sure that I’m following the advice in there.

  6. Modern Survival

    @Chris and Jon,

    I think the two of you have just pointed to the error and my thinking quite accurately might I say.

    So going forward I think we should look at

    1. What is going to run out first

    2. How much will run out first

    3. Which demographics will be effected as things run out

    Then perhaps we can be more accurate with the violent crime curve. I am also happy I was wrong here, it meas less people were hurt and killed.

  7. Nice show Jack, I look forward to your predictions for next year

  8. Crime Rate: coincidentally a caller on Rush Limbaugh’s show on Thursday ran a bail bond operation (in I think California) and said the reason why the crime rate is down is because the police have not been making arrests because they cannot afford to prosecute them or hold them in jail. It might be that the number of incidents are way up, but no arrests are being made. I’m going to say that Jack was right on this one.

  9. In regard to Chapman; before you get all misty-eyed defending the guy, you may want to read

    http://www.rgm.com/articles/sec7.html

    SEC filing… He appears to be a pump and dump scam artist.

    Here’s an excerpt:

    In mid-January 2003, defendant Anthony Wile primed the market for Sedona and Renaissance shares by orchestrating touting by defendant “Robert J. Chapman”, a purportedly “independent” newsletter writer who secretly owned Renaissance shares, and other investment newsletter writers. Chapman issued at least one report touting the merger and telling the public that shares of Sedona, which had last traded at three cents per share, would open on January 21 at around $10 per share.

    Maybe this is the reason why old Bob lives in Mexico? Or maybe there’s some perfectly reasonable alternative explanation for this stuff. You decide. I’ll be more inclined to take Jack’s advice on finance, myself…

  10. No html tags allowed?! My post was gonna look all suave and stuff, too… dang.

    SEC filing:
    http://www.rgm.com/articles/sec7.html

  11. Modern Survival

    @John_S

    Can’t allow it Word Press has some recurring issues with security if you allow comment tagging. They keep fixing it but people keep coming up with new hacks. Anyway thanks for the comment and I cleaned it up and put in the block quotes for you.

    And thanks for the info, good to know my instincts seem to be on track. I would still like to have the guy on the show and give him a chance to answer some tough questions.

  12. I’d love to hear that interview. I’ve heard he was confronted about this stuff by a Canadian radio guy and just hung up.

    To the guys defending Chapman: If you’re gonna listen to GCN, I’d stick with Katherine Albrecht and Free Talk Live. Very libertarian and much less doom-crying soap opera.

    Albrecht talks gardening and prepper type things occasionally. I’m going to send her a request to interview you, Jack. I think it would be a good fit.