Episode-328 Deception – Disasters – Commonality and Probability

Today we do a bit of a mixed bag and then bring them together in the end.  Today as I broadcast from my home office with better audio I am watching a Texas snow fall so it is logical to talk about global warming for a bit.  The reason I am doing so is as usual when I mention it even in passing I get a lot of “hate mail” calling me things like “holocaust denier”, etc.   I wanted to go on record as the real environmentalist that I actually am, even though I believe man made global warming due to CO2 is a complete scam.

Oh and for those in love with all those “conclusive graphs” that prove global warming.  First a graph proves nothing, it is nothing but a graphical representation of number.  So tune in today and I will explain how to manipulate a graph with out even fudging any of the numbers.  This is a technique used by all sales and marketing people, everyday.  I will also tell you about one thing we have learned from climate gate about how they fix problems with graphs just by “adding to the numbers”.  Deception takes many forms, my goal today is to empower you to spot it, not to tell you what you should believe.

I then shift gears into a discussion about the two part concepts of disaster probability and disaster commonality and how they relate to each other and how those concepts can be used to improve your personal planning.

In the end I explain how these two topics are hugely linked in reality and why understanding deception, dependence and sustainability are so important to not just our physical survival but the survival of our nation and our family unit.

Resources for today’s show…

Remember to comment, chime in and tell us your thoughts, this podcast is one man’s opinion, not a lecture or sermon. Also please enter our listener appreciation contest and help spread the word about our show.  Also remember you can call in your questions and

27 Responses to Episode-328 Deception – Disasters – Commonality and Probability

  1. soccer grannie

    I subscribed to TSPs YouTube Channel. The videos are different than the ones last week. Are the Solar Oven, Three Sisters, Product Reviews, etc. not accessible on TSPs YouTube Channel now?

  2. Jack, there’s a book titled “How to Lie With Statistics” that is superb. Particularly if anyone has ever gotten into an argument on the Internet. 🙂

  3. Snow in Texas? Yesterday it dumped in Western Montana, and the weather cleared up with freezing temps. -10f in the mountains around MacDonald Pass and 1f at the airport this morning in Helena. Great for keeping food and water cool in the car! I had five pounds of raw Angus hamburger last me about a week without a portable cooler. 🙂

  4. soccer grannie

    RE TSP YouTube: I went back and clicked on ALL above interview with the judge and the videos I was looking for showed up.

  5. Modern Survival

    @soccer grannie,

    They are all still there, where you see the videos listed you will see a link that says view all, you are just seeing the most recent videos.

  6. I agree with you as always – except about this topic – it just seems reasonable -all science aside, that massive movements of carbon from the earth\’s crust into the small layer of atmosphere for 200 years has real results. The biosphere weighs very little compared with the materials we\’re mining from the earth\’s mantle. There\’s not just science behind anthropogenic climate change – common sense supports it too. Its just like when many volcanoes erupt in small periods of time – they cause changes as well. The climate has always shifted and humans are influential enough to be part of the shifts occurring.

  7. Modern Survival

    @Ben,

    See confronted with the LACK of science about CO2 warming, you fall back to the old hat of “its just common sense”. Common sense doesn’t equal science and the reality is when we examine the data all “proof” about CO2 causing warming evaporates like a fart in the wind.

    Again I implore you to read the skeptic hand book, just read it, open minded, it won’t brain wash you.

    Further here is that one pesky scientific fact none of the climate change people want to touch with a 12 foot pole,

    “The carbon that’s already up in the atmosphere absorbs most of the light that it can. CO2 only ‘soaks up’ its favorite wavelengths of light and it’s close to saturation point. The natural greenhouse effect is real, and does keep us warm, but it’s already reached it’s peak performance.

    Throw more carbon up there and most of the extra gas is just ‘unemployed’ molecules. They manage to grab a bit more light from wavelengths that are close to their favorite bands but they can’t do much more, because there are not many left-over photons at the right wavelengths.”

    Not a single climate change advocate ever has had an answer to that when I bring it up. It is indeed fact, you can’t change the chemical properties of CO2 just to make a theory work, I guess unless you want to prove global warming, then I guess it is OK right?

  8. Modern Survival

    Oh and Ben the biggest impact by volcano is not CO2 in fact the large degree of NO EFFECT from volcanic CO2 is proof against conventional global warming theory.

    Volcanos have a big effect on climate two ways, first with the reflective properties of an ash cloud, then long term with SO2 (sulpher dixode) not CO2. Historically volcanic activity had caused wide scale global cooling by the way.

    When you seek fact it always seems to get in the way of this Al Gore, Cap and Trade nonsense. Further, even if C02 was the enemy, Cap and Trade won’t do a damn thing to slow down mans CO2 production. It is just a back end tax and based on Gores business model may very well make Al Gore the richest man on the planet.

  9. I haven’t finished listening to the show but Jack I WILL use a commense sense argument against global warming – the majority of the data collected has been from a measurement site in Hawaii – one site. I believe we have about 100 years of true, recorded data? Drawing conclusions from data taken from one site, for an absurdly short period of time, relative to the time spans that the global warming theorists talk about (usually in terms of hundreds of thousands or even millions of years) is ludicrous. Just absurd – to me, everybody should recognize this. As a research engineer, if I tried to extrapolate any sort of data to that extent I’d be fired. That’s for directly measured data. I know that scientists use ice core samples and look at CO2 content, bubble formation/size, etc. but to me there are too many interaction effects here to be a geniunely reliable source of data. None of this means we shouldn’t not be good stewards, especially for our childrens’ sake.

  10. Modern Survival

    @timfromohio

    See that is a reasonable use of common sense. You are not using common sense to prove global warming is a hoax only to point out the holes this the things that they try to tell us are proof.

    In the end what you just said is true, it is common sense and it should be considered by people that just believe in this bullshit. Yet you don’t use it to prove anything about the climate, up, down, left or right. You are just pointing to the reality that much of the claimed science is nothing but well spun PR.

    Well done man!

  11. Jack –
    I’d love it if you’re right.. I’ll check out the materials more and pass them on to friend’s who are climate scientists. I myself studied glacial ablation (melting) and mass balance rates in AK for a summer and we found clear evidence of warming at most elevations over hundreds of years, this is true in most areas of the world – see Glacier NP’s ice – all melting back. The earth is warming in general – there seems to be plenty of agreement in the scientific community about that – do you think that is a hoax? I would have a tough time believing so, but of course would be open to the idea. I can’t see how 200 years of transporting carbon from the ground into the air is not going to have some large consequences. Do you?
    All things are connected in a unified system (like the earth) – we can both agree on that ecological fact, yes?
    Best,
    Ben

  12. BTW the cap and trade stuff and climate treaties are not for most people to profit off of, or the powerful to profit off of – that’s probably why little is happening in that front and why crap won’t get done in Copenhagen – the powerful want to keep business as usual. So the idea that climate change is promulgated by the power structure seems really confused. Few stand to gain by ‘promoting’ the idea of anthropogenic climate change. It’s the other way around! Business as usual is best for those who already run the show.
    Would you not agree?

  13. Modern Survival

    Ben on your second comment you are so wrong. Cap and trade will make carbon the largest traded commodity in the world. Larger then food, real estate, oil, gas, etc. Cap and trade takes something with no value “carbon credits” and with the stoke of government ink turns it into a currency! See no one gets this. The ecowarrior has no clue that when he fights for climate change he is being used as tool for big government and big business.

    Read those two PDFs man, seriously.

    On your first comment in regard to this question,

    “The earth is warming in general – there seems to be plenty of agreement in the scientific community about that – do you think that is a hoax?”

    No of course not, with one exception. Over the last nine years the global average has cooled, but it warmed a lot especially from 1978-1999 but man alive 20 years is meaningless in global time lines. Do you remember 78-79 and the early 80s it was so cold what were climate scientists tell us on the nightly news back then? That’s right a new ice age was coming soon, all the “climate models proved it”. The culprit was called smog and anyone opposing that was considered a “tool of big business who was trying to kill the planet”. Oh my but what short memories we have.

    If you want to know how I feel about the earths systems and mans disgraceful treatment of it listen to today’s audio I don’t see the need to type what I just broadcast.

    Look it is simple, the pollution we are dumping is a problem, the real pollution but there is no money to be made, taxes to be created or empowerment of big government that can come from addressing it. Conversely when it comes to CO2, there is the potential to steal national sovereignty, create global taxation and make more money for both industry and government then has ever even existed before.

    You have to think about it, cap and trade takes a totally non physical commodity “a credit for not producing carbon” and turns it into a fiat currency on a global scale. No foil hats there man, just do the math.

  14. Jack thanks for answering my original question on Monday. I obviously come from the sceptic viewpoint and was fascinated to hear your view.
    The stuff about co2 saturation was new to me so thanks for that
    Mark the Limey

  15. re: carbongate – sham scam or reality..?
    Over here in Vermont its been a)cooler and wetter than usual last two springs and summers – month long rains, folowed by b) much warmer than usual falls (no snow, 50s and 60\’s in Oct and Nov..up TILL RIGHT NOW. ITS CRAZY. Tomatos, potatos, and other crops keep getting new forms of problems… rotting blossom end rot, blights, etc. Mold is a huge problem for the usually hardy \"keeper\" COLE and BRASSICAs, even onions and garlic are affected in some areas…
    I guess I don\’t care what \"they\" call it – warming, ice age, rot age, .. its all \"Global Wierding\" to lil farmers like me.
    We can see that SOMETHING is up, and its not good, whatever the reason. I dont care who \"they\" wanna blame, I want us as a people to unite, to plant crops, and Survive.
    I hope we can make it. Y\’all PLANT FOOD.
    Peace to all & may you always have food and safety for your families and friends.

  16. Jack – thanks for the compliment!

    One more comment – guess what was on the cover of “Time” magazine in 1979? Another big sensational story … “The Coming Ice Age”

  17. Jack, what an awesome show. You hit the nail on the head as far as explaining the reasons why we do what we do. Out of all of the shows I think this is the one that can reach those who are still “grasshoppers”. I will keep this show on readily available foe those in my life that want to know why I prep. I think you should add to the tag line something to let people know this would be a great show for introduction to prepping.

    Thanks for all your hard work. As far as your goal to change peoples lives you can check it off because you have impacted my families life more than I could ever explain. i once was a grasshopper now I’m on the road to becoming an ANT! That I sincerly owe to you. From my family to you I’d like to say thank you!

    You and your family our in our thoughts and prayers, always.

    Rich

  18. Thanks for the further info. Jack…
    I can see what you are saying about the carbon economy. I will look into this more, of course.
    Agreed 20 years is nothing in the climate scale of time. We do need to adapt to the changes in climate – whether by man’s making or not – pests for one thing are moving north – lime disease, hemlock whooly adelgid, and many others (malaria down south).
    It would be a real shame if the carbon economy in process is simply to control people – i hope its not, but would not have a tough time believing it if so. I think its going out on a big limb to think this is the intention though – and I am not someone afraid of “conspiracy theories”.!
    Misguided it may be yes, but a plot? I think they already have plenty ways of controlling everyone. We do need to reduce carbon emissions, agreed I would assume, so how best to do this?

  19. First – I read the 2 PDFs you sent – thank you. I also passed them to people who do climate research directly (people who I know have no gov./corporate funding to prove some point to, one way or the other).
    I’ve looked further into the co2 concentration-temperature link – which I always assumed was true – thanks for getting me to question this.

    There does indeed seem to be earnest disagreement among the data about this. There are seemingly sound studies showing both a solid link in geological timeframes and those refuting the link.
    Since we are not climate researchers and have no direct access to the data (just interpretations of it), knowing which is true is not really possible. We could look into every dime of funding for each study and try to draw some connections there as to motivations of the date, but that’s time intensive (though if someone does this please pass the info.)
    In light of this, what it seems to come down to is this: There’s likely to be no definitive evidence of anthropogenic climate influence for many many years, if ever. The climate system is inherently too complex for that. Of course. So what should we believe and base actions off of? I vote, still, for the precautionary approach here – that humans moving massive amounts of material from the crust into the thin atmosphere probably imbalances the system. Maybe it doesn’t. But prudence would suggest acting as if it does. Does this mean we need cap and trade – no. Carbon credits – no. I think that’s mostly bullshit as well. Agreed. But since you are so big on precaution I am surprised you do not think that its highly plausable that human action might be throwing the climate system off a bit. Of course, maybe its not -maybe its sun spots. We DON’T KNOW FOR SURE. (That’s the main lesson with most science). But, what’s most prudent and beneficial to plan around? Emissions reductions and planning for rapid climate changes *that always occur before and after humans* seem to be two responses here. Hauling off on AGW as though its some big conspiracy seems a bit misguided – you may be right, you may be wrong. No one knows for sure. Mostly, we should act as if our influence matters, just like your message is with the rest of what you speak about so well.
    Thanks…
    Ben

  20. Hello Jack and thank you for the very thoughtful and focused messages. I liked your clear explanation of the global warming farce and how we the people of not only this country but the entire world have been played as chumps. Companies have been put out of business, tens of thousands of jobs eliminated because government was given a baseball bat to swing at the business sector. I work for local government and have seen into their world of grabbing for more revenue each and every year. When new building codes or revised ones come along a small grin forms on the face of a comptroller or town manager somewhere thinking of untapped potential income. I do believe that honest people exist in government on many levels, I am one of them but when the dollar becomes the driving force of local or state government the endangered state of liberty is placed in great jeopardy.

    Ben my friend, I am glad for you that you are talking this out and forming your thoughts here on the blog. Some of your questions or long held beliefs reflect many of our own but my friend, please take some time to consider what it is that awaits not only the United States in Copenhagan but the whole world. Not a cleaner earth, not by a long shot. A one world government awaits for those who hunger and thirst for power. The magic smoke has been let out of the global warming bottle this past week and people are still waiting for the fog to lift but we must, must stay vigilant. Until the smoke does clear and we as a society of individuals have time to intake and absorb that we were lied to, we will need opportunity to ask what IS the truth about our earthly home and WHAT do we need to do as good stewards of this gift we call earth.

    I too agree that none of us at any time should have card blanche to rape the earth and lay waste to it but can we all find balance here. Global warming is one swing of the pendulum and complete scoffers are to the other swing. Balance, we must look for and find balance. It’s not totally Jack’s way or mine and it’s not totally yours but somewhere in the middle and only discussing the facts, true proven facts that both sides can agree on will lead us on that path.

    You, Ben are listening to Jack and Jack is trying his hardest to penetrate twenty years of implanted information and I believe if you both keep talking, you will find your balance, just talk about the facts. So many people on either side of this issue will not talk but only scream. When one side or the other becomes frustrated with their inability to produce facts and evidence they go for the low blow and attack the other’s morality or faith beliefs and in that arena none of us are perfect and either side can be held to blame.

    God created a beautiful thing and gives us the free will to build it up or distroy it, the choice is ours to make. One decision brings life and the other death. Where are we all in that decision process? As for me, I choose life, wherever that will lead me.

    palmbay lou.

  21. On having a well and city water: in most communities this is illegal due to the danger of contamination of the city water system by the private well water backing up into the main water supply.

  22. On another note, I’ll report what climate researchers I know have to say about the PDF’s – these are people I know are not interested in gov. regulation, any new world order descending there from, or have any particular political ax to grind. Whatever they say – it doesn’t seem to matter as much as the motives/sense/overall picture here – evidence can made into whatever people want to show – we’re all agreed on that it seems. What I still can’t see the logic in is the whole anth. climate change as conspiracy/way to control people. The primary power structures already have plenty of better more direct ways to control people, no? We have Dept. of Homeland Security, the patriot act, food safety and modernization act, Monsanto in bed with legislators, etc etc etc. The world bank, WHO, FDA.
    WE DON’T NEED CLIMATE CHANGE TO CONTROL THE MASSES. If this was a way to do so the Rove-Bush I and II administrations would have levered it as such.
    Please, point out if I missing something here, but the climate change as conspiracy argument just doesn’t add up to me. I am sure some pan-govt. entities see it that way – but most of the people in power – using it to control the masses… really? Again, they have a lot better ways of doing this.
    Also, in terms of reducing pollution, which taxing carbon MAY help do (I am not for all the carbon economy crap), what else would do it? We can all agree that the most control this generation has on future generations is simply by our flagrant wasting of natural resources the future will need. That is the most direct form of “intergenerational tyranny” as Jefferson noted. So that’s the big issue here to me: how to get this generation to to not waste the prospects of the future whether it be by coal or car.

  23. To Ben; Amen brother, I agree, how do we speak to those of our generation and the next about not wasting the earth? For me it is about speaking to their souls, their spirit, meeting them on level footing. How do they perceive this point in history? What do they think of when they hear the word conservation? What sort of lifestyle do they envision living along those lines? How do we who see importance with such things transfer or translate our message into audible thought and get it into their brains?

    I see Al Gore give his talk on how the earth is crumbling at a mile a minute and if we do not drown we will die in fire because we are killing our planet day by day. I see legislators creating bills in congress to possibly limit the amount of meat we consume to urge ranchers to raise less cattle. Less cattle, less methane gas, less methane less ozone depletion. To me it is some of the most far fetched ideas human beings can devise, yet, those people are passionate about their message and their cause.

    Can we do the same with our message, to share it with our passion. Not Jacks’s, not the guy down the street but our own passion. I know of a man who started something with twelve men. He gained their attention by living a certain way, speaking a certain way and willing to let anyone curious to come close and learn from him. That opportunity opened new doors for people who were without passion, without a direction. People today look for direction and a way to focus their passion. To create a way to leave a mark on this earth to show they were hear. For a few, saving the earth will be done by fear and trembling, to shock others into believing the message and continually prodding with fear to stoke the flames.

    I for one choose to live as that man did, to live a certain way and speak a certain way and when opportunity opens the door to let others in to see my message and feel my passion. Control. Why do so many desire it? I believe it is because they are afraid. The next question to ask is, who is afraid and of what? I believe it is the people who do not trust in you. They do not trust you and they do not trust me, they do not trust their neighbor and they do not trust in the one who created us. When mankind attempts to replace God with rules and laws, when people pull rank and exercise rule over their neighbor because that ruler fears the unbridled reason and conscience of a society that chooses to love God and live accordingly. When that society says,”look, I may not live just like you or dress like you and speak like you but let me live my life and you live yours,” some people can’t stand that kind of freedom to exist. Their minds run a muck with what-ifs and possibilities they the rulers might become not so special, just the same as everybody else. Why does a person try to exercise control over others? They do not know who they are in this world so they try to create an identity. They have egos that need to be stroked. They want to ensure their existence, their future and their mark on this world. Look around you and think of people you know and ask yourself if there are any who if given their opportunity, would they try to control? Would they make society into their own pattern, their own vision? We all have the tendency to do so but the difference between people like us and people like them is, we choose today and tomorrow not to do that. We remember to respect others freedom to live how they want because we want the same. We choose not to create society in our own pattern because we have not blinded ourselves to think we can pull it off, we realize diversity enriches this world. Diversity brings with it many possibilities, many answers to preservation of our planet and its resources. Look for diversity from those around you, allow the message and the passion to be spread in diverse ways.

    You do not have to believe that others are trying to rule the world, you do not have to believe that global warming does not exist. The bottom line to this message is that you can choose to believe these things or not, that is what all of us want to preserve, your choice to believe, my choice to believe, the freedom of everyone to choose. What we argue against is the fact that many want to take away that opportunity, take away your freedom to make choices, to stifle your diversity and arrest your voice. As for me I rally my passion to fight against their control, I want true freedom and that to me is the opportunity to do the right thing if and when I see the need. May you see the need to do the right thing today and every day and may your passion carry you to do it.

    Lou.

  24. I think the moral of the story is pick or choose whichever side your conclusions lead you towards. The main point is this: however well intentioned a large bureaucratic organizations efforts are at solving a problem it will ultimately come down to individual citizens making an effort to live a more sustainable lifestyle. We need to get over our excessive lifestyles and start living more responsibly.

    For me this means producing food and energy, lowering (not eliminating) beef from my diet, bicycling to work when it is reasonable to do so, composting my food waste.

    If global warming is real I’m a good guy, if global warming is a farce I’m still a good guy.

    I like the message here, and that is why I keep coming back, stop sitting around waiting for the government to pass the law that is finally going to fix it all or force others to comply with legislation to change their ways. Start spreading a mentality that promotes freedom and responsibility and let it infect the nation.

  25. Modern Survival

    @Nick you said,

    “For me this means producing food and energy, lowering (not eliminating) beef from my diet, bicycling to work when it is reasonable to do so, composting my food waste.”

    Agreed to a degree, I guess I reduce beef by consuming things like venison. Yet I will never not buy beef just because of “the planet”, hey cows are more dangerous then CO2 even the EPA report says so, someone has to eat them, ;>)

    Then you said,

    “If global warming is real I’m a good guy, if global warming is a farce I’m still a good guy.”

    I completely agree and that stance if fine for individuals and I hope more take it. In fact global warming should be the last thing anyone thinks about when making their life more sustainable and independent. The problem arises when government tries using the same argument. If you put up solar panels, eat less cows, compost, grow your own food, there are clear benefits and we loose nothing. When the government uses cap and trade to create a new currency (carbon credits) that is the worlds new instant largest traded economy and leverages it to create a global tax system, there are no clear benefits and much to be lost.

    To those that think a carbon tax will reduce carbon go look at the sales of tobacco, alcohol and firearms for the last 25 years. All have grown in tax, all have grown in sales and all due to the tax scheme serve only to empower government and take wealth away from the people. To think that something like cap and trade won’t do the same is simply choosing blindness over reality.

  26. @jack – regarding the beef. Was talking about this with a friend and he pointed out that he buys half a steer each year from a local farmer from a grass fed local farm. It\’s a lot less expensive and he claims the quality of the beef is amazing. I am considering now to do this myself . Your not buying just a huge slab, they butcher and wrap them all in nicely labeled butcher paper. So I might go from eating less beef to having half a steer in my freezer, go figure. 🙂

    A good thing to do from a prepper standpoint to fill up that chest freezer and it makes me feel better about my choices in some small way.

    I\’ll have to do more research on these small farms to see if they actually are more sustainable, but at least from an economic/prepper standpoint it is a good thing.

    P.S. I could care less about c02, my point is sustainability is a win for everyone regardless of your views.