Recently a listener sent me a video presentation by Tony Seba called Clean Disruption – Energy & Transportation. It really causes one to think a great deal watching this. I want to point out today that I don’t feel this guys is 100% right, in fact early in today’s presentation I am going to read a quite harsh criticism by our own John Pugliano on this presentation.
I tend to fall somewhere in the middle on the three things Mr. Seba Brings up in the presentation between Seba and Pugliano. These four factors are the cost and availability of…
- Cost and efficiency of solar electric generation
- Cost and efficiency of power storage (batteries)
- Cost and efficiency of electric vehicles
- Cost and efficiency of autonomous vehicles
For my analysis of what this all means today I will consider that Mr. Seba is 50% wrong.
Still that makes what is coming in the next 20 years, absolutely earth shattering.
Join Me Today As We Discuss…
- What is the cross over point where everyone will have “some solar”
- What is the cross over point where everyone will consider an electric vehicle
- What is the cross over point where people will choose transportation as a service
- Why I believe this is all coming, smart people can’t see what is obvious
- Seba’s basic contention is anything highly underutilized is subject to massive disruption
- The average car costs 10K a year to drive and sits unused 94% of the time
- A typical power gen company has a third of its generation capacity used only 6% of the year
- Some claims Seba Makes
- Storage of power for an average home will cost a dollar a day by 2020
- By 2022 a 200 mile range electric car will cost about 22K
- Solar will double every two years and in 14 years will generation most of the worlds power
- Solar will hit grid parity then “God parity”
- Solar will hit grid parity in 80% of markets by 2017s end
- 69% of large corporations are planning to or already using solar
- God parity is when the cost of transmission is greater that the cost of local generation
- Cost of generation on a roof top in a good solar area will be 4cents a kwh by 2020
- Cost of solar plus storage should be 7-8cents per kwh by 2020
- Some utility scale solar is now already under 3cents per kwh
- Tuscon Electric is currently running utility level solar and storage at 4.5 cents
- What all this really means
Resources for today’s show…
- Join the Members Brigade
- The Year 67
- Join Our Forum
- Walking To Freedom
- The Granddaddy’s Gun Club
- Bullhead Fishing Forum – A new little site I started
- You Took the Words Right Out of My Mouth – Meatloaf
Sponsors of the Day
Remember to comment, chime in and tell us your thoughts, this podcast is one man’s opinion, not a lecture or sermon. Also please enter our listener appreciation contest and help spread the word about our show. Also remember you can call in your questions and comments to 866-65-THINK (866-658-4465) and you might hear yourself on the air.
Want Every Episode of TSP Ever Produced?
Remember in addition to discounts to over 40 vendors who supply stuff you are likely buying anyway, tons of free ebooks and video content, MSB Members also get every edition of The Survival Podcast ever produced in convenient zip files in blocks of 24. More info on the MSB can be found here.
Below is the Presentation by Tony Seba
Referred to in Today’s Show