The “stay indoors” scenario that you describe is only one of a million possible disaster scenarios. I’m not sure how you can say that this is the “most likely”. In fact, the most recent scare of the swine-flu was extremely slow developing. There was more than enough time to bugout if one was paying attention and didn’t wait until the last minute.

Jack has done many podcasts on the threat probability matrix that address this issue.

Thanks for answering my question on air Jack! (re: bugout from Austin).

Cheers,
G

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But one big one was NOT TOUCHED…… If the SHTF scenario occurs – Why do you think you’ll be able to get to your bug out location if it is several hours away? It is LIKELY that we would be in a “Stay Indoors….Do Not leave your home” scenario….

I don’t care how great your Bug Out spot is…. If you can’t get to it – it ain’t gunna do ya no good….

This aspect was CONSPICUOUS BY ITS ABSENCE in an otherwise informative podcast.

Steve C

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Two thoughts just came to me.

One, you talk about permanently moving to your bug-out location someday. Does this mean you will sell your current home and therefor loose the safety of having an alternate place to go?

Two, when the kids grow up, does their home become a bug-out location? (I am assuming you would teach them to spread out to about a four hour drive.)

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I would keep in mind that gas cost will continue to increase. You should listen to the show on Peak Oil and look at sites like this one. http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html
I would not move into a rural area unless you have a job that you can do in that area or you have developed a self sufficient lifestyle. If you do decide to move to the country I would look for a small community that has the basic elements of a sustainable economy. Things like agriculture, timber, people who have skills you need (medical, mechanical). I would also look for a location with multiple transportation options. Things like navigable waterways and rail lines.

I am thinking that for now the best solution is to get a small inexpensive condo near my job and transit. I also want to get a bug out location in a rural area like I described. Over time, as things deteriorate, I will shift to the second location.

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Great podcast, you always get me thinking of something new!

I had a question… I believe that you mentioned in episode 200 that urban and suburban properties may continue to decrease in value (even below what they are now) in the years to come and that rural properties would increase in value as people move away from the big cities.

I live in a suburb of Seattle, WA and bought in 2006 at the tail end of the boom. Although I live in a very desirable area that is virtually untouched by foreclosures, property values have decreased a smidgen and I have probably lost about $30,000 on my homes value. The loss doesn’t really bother me because I can still pay my mortgage and when I bought it I got a fixed loan so my mortgage payment will never change. It has always been my belief that real estate is one of the best investments that you can make and that, while there are ups and downs, it will always appreciate if you hold on to it long enough. That being said, with your recent predictions for the future I am now concerned about my property value continuing to go down over the next 5-10 years rather than going up like past trends have shown.

I wanted to ask if it would then make sense to consider selling my place, taking a loss, and then buying a more rural property for less. The reasoning here is that taking a loss now, although it would be a loss, would be better than taking an even greater loss later after I have invested more in my place in the form of mortgage payments, etc.

Living in the greater Seattle area, rural land is much more expensive than it is in Texas, but I could definitely afford something. My original plan was to continue to pay down my current mortgage and then, in a few years, rent out my place and relocate to a more rural home (but still within a reasonable distance to jobs in this area). But now, I am concerned that this won’t be a viable plan if I continue to lose money on the place I currently own.

Thanks for your advice Jack, it’s always appreciated!

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